Investor's Corner
Tesla’s competitors are realizing that making good electric cars is not so easy
For years, Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) critics have argued that the electric car maker is nothing special, incompetent even, to the point where any other company, veteran or newcomer, could easily beat the Silicon Valley-based carmaker in their own game. Fast forward to November 2019, and it is starting to become evident that perhaps Tesla is not so easy to overtake after all.
Take NIO, for example, a company that is perceived as “China’s Tesla” several times in the past. Aggressive and ambitious, NIO was supported by TSLA critics as a rival that has the potential to beat the American electric car maker at its own game. Yet, inasmuch as the greater part of 2019 was cruel to Tesla, so was it difficult for NIO.
Over the past few months, NIO was hit by a perfect storm including a reduction of government subsidies, trade war uncertainties, and what appears to be decreasing demand in its home country. This has resulted in NIO cutting over 2,000 jobs to optimize its operations. Its shares, which are publicly traded just like TSLA stock, have also plummeted.
One could argue that NIO is encountering difficulties since it is still a young company. But even veteran automakers are also running into issues with their respective EV programs. Take the Volkswagen Group’s Audi, for example. The Audi e-tron is a well-reviewed premium electric vehicle with a price that is comparable to the Model X, but it features over 100 miles less range from a battery that is nearly as big as the pack in Tesla’s SUV. Audi’s recall of half of all e-trons sold since the vehicle was launched due to a fire risk further highlights the difficulty of the EV market.
Even Jaguar with the award-winning I-PACE was no exception. The I-PACE is quite the darling of the motoring industry, having swept over 60 awards since its release. Yet, even the stunningly-designed vehicle is seeing its sales decline, and owners are reporting issues such as less-than-expected range. Similar to the Audi e-tron, the I-PACE was also hit by a recall last June due to issues with its regenerative braking system, which could increase the risk of collisions.
Among the veterans, Porsche appears to be the one that is doing the best. The Taycan is well-received by both the pro and anti-Tesla community, but even the track-capable monster from Stuttgart struggles with range and its price. The Taycan is every bit the monster that the sports car maker promised, but the vehicle’s range falls far below the 310 miles that were expected years before its release. Its price has also ballooned, with a well-equipped Taycan Turbo S setting buyers back far above the $200,000 range.
The difficulty of the electric car industry could not be highlighted better than Dyson, a British company that made its mark through its innovative, premium fans and vacuum cleaners. Dyson attempted to enter the EV market, but after spending $1.3 billion, the company decided to abandon its efforts, deeming the initiative as commercially unviable.
Seeing all these challenges, one can almost see why Tesla CEO Elon Musk has described Tesla as an exercise in insanity. A company with nothing but a prototype sports car and an ambition to take on the auto industry in pre-2008 recession America, after all, could only be described as either courageous or absolutely crazy. Yet, beyond all the trials and tribulations, Tesla remains standing, and it is now positioned to lead in the EV market.
It took a lot of close calls, brushes with potential death, and Elon Musk’s self-inflicted wounds, but it is starting to become evident that maybe, just maybe, Tesla’s long-term bet is finally paying off. In the emerging EV era, it would be difficult to catch a company that has its own rapid charging network, battery technology, a habit of constant software upgrades, and an ecosystem of vehicles and energy products that highlight a key goal — to accelerate the world’s transition to sustainable energy.
Investor's Corner
Tesla is ‘better-positioned’ as a company and as a stock as tariff situation escalates
Tesla is “better-positioned” as a company and as a stock as the tariff situation between the United States, Mexico, and Canada continues to escalate as President Donald Trump announced sanctions against those countries.
Analysts at Piper Sandler are unconcerned regarding Tesla’s position as a high-level stock holding as the tariff drama continues to unfold. This is mostly due to its reputation as a vehicle manufacturer in the domestic market, especially as it holds a distinct advantage of having some of the most American-made vehicles in the country.
Analysts at the firm, led by Alexander Potter, said Tesla is “one of the most defensive stocks” in the automotive sector as the tariff situation continues.
The defensive play comes from the nature of the stock, which should not be too impacted from a U.S. standpoint because of its focus on building vehicles and sourcing parts from manufacturers and companies based in the United States. Tesla has held the distinct title of having several of the most American-made cars, based on annual studies from Cars.com.
Its most recent study, released in June 2024, showed that the Model Y, Model S, and Model X are three of the top ten vehicles with the most U.S.-based manufacturing.
Tesla captures three spots in Cars.com’s American-Made Index, only U.S. manufacturer in list
The year prior, Tesla swept the top four spots of the study.
Piper Sandler analysts highlighted this point in a new note on Monday morning amidst increasing tension between the U.S. and Canada, as Mexico has already started to work with the Trump Administration on a solution:
“Tesla assembles five vehicles in the U.S., and all five rank among the most American-made cars.”
However, with that being said, there is certainly the potential for things to get tougher. The analysts believe that Tesla, while potentially impacted, will be in a better position than most companies because of their domestic position:
“If nothing changes in the next few days, tariffs will almost certainly deal a crippling blow to automotive supply chains in North America. [There is a possibility that] Trump capitulates in some way (perhaps he’ll delay implementation, in an effort to save face).”
There is no evidence that Tesla will be completely bulletproof when it comes to these potential impacts. However, it is definitely better insulated than other companies.
Need accessories for your Tesla? Check out the Teslarati Marketplace:
- https://shop.teslarati.com/collections/tesla-cybertruck-accessories
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Please email me with questions and comments at joey@teslarati.com. I’d love to chat! You can also reach me on Twitter @KlenderJoey, or if you have news tips, you can email us at tips@teslarati.com.
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) received a price target boost from analysts at Truist Securities, but it came with some criticisms based on a lack of information on several things that investors were excited to hear about regarding future vehicles and AI achievements.
Last night, Tesla reported its earnings from the fourth quarter of 2024, and while it had a very tempered financial showing, missing most of the Wall Street targets that were set for it, the stock was up after hours and on Thursday due to the details the company released regarding its plans for 2025.
CEO Elon Musk stunned listeners last night by revealing plans to launch unsupervised Full Self-Driving as a service in Austin in June 2025. It will be the first time Tesla will offer driverless FSD rides in public, something it has been working with the City of Austin on since December.
Tesla to launch unsupervised Full Self-Driving as a service in Austin in June
It also reiterated plans for affordable models to be launched this year, potentially catalyzing annual growth in deliveries, something it said it expects to resume in 2025.
Tesla was flat on deliveries in 2024 compared to 2023.
The positives during the call were enough for Truist Securities analyst William Stein to raise the company’s price target to $373 from $351. However, Stein’s note to investors showed there was something to be desired despite all the good that was revealed during the call:
Stein said there was “not enough ground-truth” during the call and too much of a focus on “cheerleading” the company’s potential releases this year:
“Too much cheerleading; not enough ground-truth. In Q4, TSLA’s ASP weakness drive revenue, GPM, OPM, & EPS below consensus.”
As previously mentioned, Tesla did report weak financials that missed consensus estimates. What saved the call and perhaps the stock from plummeting on these missed metrics was the other details that Musk revealed, especially the FSD launch in Austin in June.
There were also plenty of things related to the affordable models and other vehicles, like the fact that Tesla plans to include things like Steer by Wire, Adaptive Air Suspension, and Rear Wheel Steering, that helped offset negatives.
Stein saw this as a distraction from what should have been reported:
“While CEO Elon Musk played the role of cheerleader, calling for TSLA’s path to massive market cap by leading in autonomy, management was remarkably short on two critical details: (1) info about new vehicles in 2025 and (2) milestones for AI acheivements, especially FSD. We continue to ask ourselves ‘where’s the beef?’ CY26 EPS to $3.99 (from $4.87). DCF-derived PT to $373 (from $351).”
Tesla did detail some AI milestones, like its record-breaking miles per accident on Autopilot, which was a Q4-best of 5.94 million miles. The Shareholder Deck also outlined major upgrades to AI:
“In Q4, we completed the deployment of Cortex, a ~50k H100 training cluster at Gigafactory Texas. Cortex helped enable V13 of FSD (Supervised)1, which boasts major improvements in safety and comfort thanks to 4.2x increase in data, higher resolution video inputs, 2x reduction in photon-to-control latency and redesigned controller, among other enhancements.”
Tesla shares are up 2.11 percent on Thursday as of 12:05 p.m. on the East Coast.
Need accessories for your Tesla? Check out the Teslarati Marketplace:
- https://shop.teslarati.com/collections/tesla-cybertruck-accessories
- https://shop.teslarati.com/collections/tesla-model-y-accessories
- https://shop.teslarati.com/collections/tesla-model-3-accessories
Please email me with questions and comments at joey@teslarati.com. I’d love to chat! You can also reach me on Twitter @KlenderJoey, or if you have news tips, you can email us at tips@teslarati.com.
Tesla has released its Q4 2024 vehicle safety report. Similar to data from previous quarters, vehicles that were operating with Autopilot technology proved notably safer.
The Q4 2024 report:
- As per Tesla, it recorded one crash for every 5.94 million miles driven in which drivers were using Autopilot technology.
- The company also recorded one crash for every 1.08 million miles driven for drivers who were not using Autopilot technology.
- For comparison, the most recent data available from the NHTSA and FHWA (from 2023) showed that there was one automobile crash every 702,000 miles in the United States.
Previous safety reports:
- In Q3 2024, Tesla recorded one crash for every 7.08 million miles driven in which drivers were using Autopilot technology and one crash for every 1.29 million miles driven by drivers not using Autopilot technology.
- In Q2 2024, Tesla recorded one crash for every 6.88 million miles driven in which drivers were using Autopilot technology, and one crash for every 1.45 million miles driven for drivers not using Autopilot technology.
- In Q1 2024, Tesla recorded one crash for every 7.63 million miles driven in which drivers were using Autopilot technology, and one crash for every 955,000 million miles driven for drivers not using Autopilot technology.
Year-over-Year Comparison:
- In Q4 2023, Tesla recorded one crash for every 5.39 million miles driven in which drivers were using Autopilot technology and one crash for every 1.00 million miles driven for drivers not using Autopilot technology.
Key background:
- Tesla began voluntarily releasing quarterly safety reports in October 2018 to provide critical safety information about our vehicles to the public.
- On July 2019, Tesla started voluntarily releasing annual updated data about vehicle fires as well.
- It should be noted that accident rates among all vehicles on the road can vary from quarter to quarter and can be affected by seasonality, such as reduced daylight and inclement weather conditions.
Don’t hesitate to contact us with news tips. Just send a message to simon@teslarati.com to give us a heads up.
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