Investor's Corner
Tesla investors want Elon Musk to discuss these things at Q3 Earnings
Tesla investors (NASDAQ: TSLA) want CEO Elon Musk to discuss these things on Wednesday as the company will report earnings for the third quarter of 2024.
Fresh off the heels of the “We, Robot” event, where Tesla unveiled the Cybercab, its version of a robotaxi, the Robovan, which could be named something completely different, and used the Optimus bot to serve drinks and entertain, the company will report earnings tomorrow.
Investors and analysts submit questions to Say, an investor relations platform, to ask Musk and other executives.
Here are the five things investors want to know about it:
Tesla $25k affordable model
Tesla has yet to shed any light on whether it will build a $25,000 EV apart from the Cybercab, which Musk said would be priced below $30,000.
Investors and analysts are well aware the vehicle could help Tesla break into an entirely new consumer base and help expand sales and deliveries, which are expected to be level with 2023 levels this year at 1.8 million.
Several of the top questions on Say ask about the $25k model and whether Tesla plans to bring this type of vehicle at this lower price point to market.
Unfortunately, Musk will likely deflect this question as he usually refuses to reveal any prospective vehicle plans on earnings calls.
Tesla Service
It is no secret Tesla Service has been a real bottleneck of the company in recent years, and with more vehicles on the road than ever, more service is needed.
Unfortunately, this is still a pain point for Tesla as it continues to struggle with reasonable wait times for owners, and although it has tried to streamline the process in the past, it has come up remarkably short.
It was not long ago that we reported on some owners complaining of service wait times of nearly two months. Imagine having a car that is in need of service, only to be told it will be two months before you can get an appointment.
Tesla owners complain about extended Service waits of nearly two months
Tesla wanted to streamline service with an F1-style pit-stop approach, but it truly never came to fruition. Although there are more service centers and mobile service vehicles nearly every quarter, Tesla is falling behind on creating an efficient maintenance model for owners.
Tesla Roadster
For years, we’ve been hearing the Tesla Roadster is coming.
This year was no different, as Musk said the vehicle would be unveiled at the end of 2024, but there are no current plans as of now, and there has not even been a hint. Tesla could have unveiled it at We, Robot, and it would have been a huge development.
(Credit: Tesla)
Musk said earlier this year that “most of the engineering” has been completed already, and production would begin next year.
Literally any clarification on whether this is still the plan would be massive for those who are waiting to drop $250,000 on the car.
Tesla Cybertruck AWD Tax Credit
Perhaps one of the most important questions that does not seem to be as important as the aforementioned topics is that of the Cybertruck AWD qualifying for the EV tax credit.
The IRS does not have the Cybertruck as a currently qualifying vehicle, which disqualifies owners who take delivery from the $7,500 credit, which is now available at the point of sale.
Ryan McCaffrey even brought up the issue:
I cannot believe that the #1 question isn’t, “What can you tell us about the individual tax credit eligibility on the Dual Motor Cybertruck? Is the issue with regulatory procedure on the IRS side or is there an element to the truck’s battery cells that disqualifies it?”
— Ryan McCaffrey (@DMC_Ryan) October 22, 2024
Tesla could clear the air significantly here and help bring some more information to owners or even prospective buyers who want to buy the Cybertruck but would like the help from the tax credit.
Tesla will report its earnings tomorrow at market close, 4 p.m. on the East Coast.
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Investor's Corner
Tesla is ‘better-positioned’ as a company and as a stock as tariff situation escalates
Tesla is “better-positioned” as a company and as a stock as the tariff situation between the United States, Mexico, and Canada continues to escalate as President Donald Trump announced sanctions against those countries.
Analysts at Piper Sandler are unconcerned regarding Tesla’s position as a high-level stock holding as the tariff drama continues to unfold. This is mostly due to its reputation as a vehicle manufacturer in the domestic market, especially as it holds a distinct advantage of having some of the most American-made vehicles in the country.
Analysts at the firm, led by Alexander Potter, said Tesla is “one of the most defensive stocks” in the automotive sector as the tariff situation continues.
The defensive play comes from the nature of the stock, which should not be too impacted from a U.S. standpoint because of its focus on building vehicles and sourcing parts from manufacturers and companies based in the United States. Tesla has held the distinct title of having several of the most American-made cars, based on annual studies from Cars.com.
Its most recent study, released in June 2024, showed that the Model Y, Model S, and Model X are three of the top ten vehicles with the most U.S.-based manufacturing.
Tesla captures three spots in Cars.com’s American-Made Index, only U.S. manufacturer in list
The year prior, Tesla swept the top four spots of the study.
Piper Sandler analysts highlighted this point in a new note on Monday morning amidst increasing tension between the U.S. and Canada, as Mexico has already started to work with the Trump Administration on a solution:
“Tesla assembles five vehicles in the U.S., and all five rank among the most American-made cars.”
However, with that being said, there is certainly the potential for things to get tougher. The analysts believe that Tesla, while potentially impacted, will be in a better position than most companies because of their domestic position:
“If nothing changes in the next few days, tariffs will almost certainly deal a crippling blow to automotive supply chains in North America. [There is a possibility that] Trump capitulates in some way (perhaps he’ll delay implementation, in an effort to save face).”
There is no evidence that Tesla will be completely bulletproof when it comes to these potential impacts. However, it is definitely better insulated than other companies.
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Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) received a price target boost from analysts at Truist Securities, but it came with some criticisms based on a lack of information on several things that investors were excited to hear about regarding future vehicles and AI achievements.
Last night, Tesla reported its earnings from the fourth quarter of 2024, and while it had a very tempered financial showing, missing most of the Wall Street targets that were set for it, the stock was up after hours and on Thursday due to the details the company released regarding its plans for 2025.
CEO Elon Musk stunned listeners last night by revealing plans to launch unsupervised Full Self-Driving as a service in Austin in June 2025. It will be the first time Tesla will offer driverless FSD rides in public, something it has been working with the City of Austin on since December.
Tesla to launch unsupervised Full Self-Driving as a service in Austin in June
It also reiterated plans for affordable models to be launched this year, potentially catalyzing annual growth in deliveries, something it said it expects to resume in 2025.
Tesla was flat on deliveries in 2024 compared to 2023.
The positives during the call were enough for Truist Securities analyst William Stein to raise the company’s price target to $373 from $351. However, Stein’s note to investors showed there was something to be desired despite all the good that was revealed during the call:
Stein said there was “not enough ground-truth” during the call and too much of a focus on “cheerleading” the company’s potential releases this year:
“Too much cheerleading; not enough ground-truth. In Q4, TSLA’s ASP weakness drive revenue, GPM, OPM, & EPS below consensus.”
As previously mentioned, Tesla did report weak financials that missed consensus estimates. What saved the call and perhaps the stock from plummeting on these missed metrics was the other details that Musk revealed, especially the FSD launch in Austin in June.
There were also plenty of things related to the affordable models and other vehicles, like the fact that Tesla plans to include things like Steer by Wire, Adaptive Air Suspension, and Rear Wheel Steering, that helped offset negatives.
Stein saw this as a distraction from what should have been reported:
“While CEO Elon Musk played the role of cheerleader, calling for TSLA’s path to massive market cap by leading in autonomy, management was remarkably short on two critical details: (1) info about new vehicles in 2025 and (2) milestones for AI acheivements, especially FSD. We continue to ask ourselves ‘where’s the beef?’ CY26 EPS to $3.99 (from $4.87). DCF-derived PT to $373 (from $351).”
Tesla did detail some AI milestones, like its record-breaking miles per accident on Autopilot, which was a Q4-best of 5.94 million miles. The Shareholder Deck also outlined major upgrades to AI:
“In Q4, we completed the deployment of Cortex, a ~50k H100 training cluster at Gigafactory Texas. Cortex helped enable V13 of FSD (Supervised)1, which boasts major improvements in safety and comfort thanks to 4.2x increase in data, higher resolution video inputs, 2x reduction in photon-to-control latency and redesigned controller, among other enhancements.”
Tesla shares are up 2.11 percent on Thursday as of 12:05 p.m. on the East Coast.
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Tesla has released its Q4 2024 vehicle safety report. Similar to data from previous quarters, vehicles that were operating with Autopilot technology proved notably safer.
The Q4 2024 report:
- As per Tesla, it recorded one crash for every 5.94 million miles driven in which drivers were using Autopilot technology.
- The company also recorded one crash for every 1.08 million miles driven for drivers who were not using Autopilot technology.
- For comparison, the most recent data available from the NHTSA and FHWA (from 2023) showed that there was one automobile crash every 702,000 miles in the United States.
Previous safety reports:
- In Q3 2024, Tesla recorded one crash for every 7.08 million miles driven in which drivers were using Autopilot technology and one crash for every 1.29 million miles driven by drivers not using Autopilot technology.
- In Q2 2024, Tesla recorded one crash for every 6.88 million miles driven in which drivers were using Autopilot technology, and one crash for every 1.45 million miles driven for drivers not using Autopilot technology.
- In Q1 2024, Tesla recorded one crash for every 7.63 million miles driven in which drivers were using Autopilot technology, and one crash for every 955,000 million miles driven for drivers not using Autopilot technology.
Year-over-Year Comparison:
- In Q4 2023, Tesla recorded one crash for every 5.39 million miles driven in which drivers were using Autopilot technology and one crash for every 1.00 million miles driven for drivers not using Autopilot technology.
Key background:
- Tesla began voluntarily releasing quarterly safety reports in October 2018 to provide critical safety information about our vehicles to the public.
- On July 2019, Tesla started voluntarily releasing annual updated data about vehicle fires as well.
- It should be noted that accident rates among all vehicles on the road can vary from quarter to quarter and can be affected by seasonality, such as reduced daylight and inclement weather conditions.
Don’t hesitate to contact us with news tips. Just send a message to simon@teslarati.com to give us a heads up.
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