Investor's Corner
Tesla’s gains new Street-high price target from Bank of America
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) has gained a new, Wall Street-high price target from Bank of America, which boosted its outlook for the electric automaker from $500 to $900 on Monday morning.
Bank of America’s bullish outlook is based on several things that are both short and long-term, which have driven the firm to boost Tesla’s price target as the Q4 2020 Earnings Call approaches. In the short-term, Tesla achieved 500,000 production units during 2020, which was a goal the automaker has held for several years. While its delivery figures fell just short of the mark at 499,650, a 350 vehicle shortage in the company’s guidance goal wasn’t enough for BoA to look at the year as a failure, as it still finished well ahead of “conservative” Wall Street estimates. Tesla produced over 509,000 cars during 2020 and delivered more than 98% of them.
Additionally, Tesla’s decision to hold multiple common stock offerings during 2020 was a critical factor in BoA’s decision to raise its guidance on the automaker’s price per share. The two financial events, which took place in September and December, drove Tesla’s ability to aggressively attack its plans for a global buildout of production facilities.
Today Bank of America raised their TSLA price target from $500 to a street high $900.
Their growth & EPS assumptions for 2021/2022, outlined in the analyst note below, are still conservative. pic.twitter.com/ugA3FlOBjG
— 𝗧𝗲𝘀𝗹𝗮 𝗙𝗮𝗰𝘁𝘀 🔋 (@truth_tesla) January 11, 2021
“Both of which were consistent with our thesis that TSLA will utilize its stock to raise capital through low-cost equity offerings in order to accelerate aggressive capacity buildout plans global and drive units/revenue substantially higher, further cementing its status as the dominant EV maker,” the firm wrote about the $5 billion stock offerings in a note to investors.
Bank of America wrote that Tesla’s stock is driven by growth afforded by valuation and stated that the proposed equity offering incited the firm to raise its “PO for TSLA from $500 to $900, as we have moved forward our sliding scale of valuation based on theoretical growth opportunity afforded to TSLA, which is now consistent with 23x EV/Sales.”
Tesla’s strategy to continue building out a series of globally-advantageous production plants is still in the works. Outside of the U.S., Tesla only has Giga Shanghai in operation, but Giga Berlin is well on its way to beginning production later this year. Despite the only two operational production facilities, BoA states that it is not necessarily worried about the lack of infrastructure because its price target is more geared toward Tesla’s financials than its ability to churn out EVs.
“Building capacity in the automotive industry is expensive and often generates low returns,” the note said. While recognizing the fact that Tesla’s ride-hailing Robotaxi service is likely to come soon, “the vehicles/platform still needs to be manufactured.” The focus is on the “upward spiral” of Tesla’s stock, which is awarding investors because as the cheaper capital becomes to the growth fund, the higher the stock price goes. “The inverse of this dynamic is also true, and it is this self-fulfilling framework that appears to explain the extreme moves in TSLA stock to the upside and downside.”
At the time of writing, TSLA shares were trading at $851.91.
Disclaimer: Joey Klender is a TSLA Shareholder.
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Investor's Corner
Tesla is ‘better-positioned’ as a company and as a stock as tariff situation escalates
Tesla is “better-positioned” as a company and as a stock as the tariff situation between the United States, Mexico, and Canada continues to escalate as President Donald Trump announced sanctions against those countries.
Analysts at Piper Sandler are unconcerned regarding Tesla’s position as a high-level stock holding as the tariff drama continues to unfold. This is mostly due to its reputation as a vehicle manufacturer in the domestic market, especially as it holds a distinct advantage of having some of the most American-made vehicles in the country.
Analysts at the firm, led by Alexander Potter, said Tesla is “one of the most defensive stocks” in the automotive sector as the tariff situation continues.
The defensive play comes from the nature of the stock, which should not be too impacted from a U.S. standpoint because of its focus on building vehicles and sourcing parts from manufacturers and companies based in the United States. Tesla has held the distinct title of having several of the most American-made cars, based on annual studies from Cars.com.
Its most recent study, released in June 2024, showed that the Model Y, Model S, and Model X are three of the top ten vehicles with the most U.S.-based manufacturing.
Tesla captures three spots in Cars.com’s American-Made Index, only U.S. manufacturer in list
The year prior, Tesla swept the top four spots of the study.
Piper Sandler analysts highlighted this point in a new note on Monday morning amidst increasing tension between the U.S. and Canada, as Mexico has already started to work with the Trump Administration on a solution:
“Tesla assembles five vehicles in the U.S., and all five rank among the most American-made cars.”
However, with that being said, there is certainly the potential for things to get tougher. The analysts believe that Tesla, while potentially impacted, will be in a better position than most companies because of their domestic position:
“If nothing changes in the next few days, tariffs will almost certainly deal a crippling blow to automotive supply chains in North America. [There is a possibility that] Trump capitulates in some way (perhaps he’ll delay implementation, in an effort to save face).”
There is no evidence that Tesla will be completely bulletproof when it comes to these potential impacts. However, it is definitely better insulated than other companies.
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Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) received a price target boost from analysts at Truist Securities, but it came with some criticisms based on a lack of information on several things that investors were excited to hear about regarding future vehicles and AI achievements.
Last night, Tesla reported its earnings from the fourth quarter of 2024, and while it had a very tempered financial showing, missing most of the Wall Street targets that were set for it, the stock was up after hours and on Thursday due to the details the company released regarding its plans for 2025.
CEO Elon Musk stunned listeners last night by revealing plans to launch unsupervised Full Self-Driving as a service in Austin in June 2025. It will be the first time Tesla will offer driverless FSD rides in public, something it has been working with the City of Austin on since December.
Tesla to launch unsupervised Full Self-Driving as a service in Austin in June
It also reiterated plans for affordable models to be launched this year, potentially catalyzing annual growth in deliveries, something it said it expects to resume in 2025.
Tesla was flat on deliveries in 2024 compared to 2023.
The positives during the call were enough for Truist Securities analyst William Stein to raise the company’s price target to $373 from $351. However, Stein’s note to investors showed there was something to be desired despite all the good that was revealed during the call:
Stein said there was “not enough ground-truth” during the call and too much of a focus on “cheerleading” the company’s potential releases this year:
“Too much cheerleading; not enough ground-truth. In Q4, TSLA’s ASP weakness drive revenue, GPM, OPM, & EPS below consensus.”
As previously mentioned, Tesla did report weak financials that missed consensus estimates. What saved the call and perhaps the stock from plummeting on these missed metrics was the other details that Musk revealed, especially the FSD launch in Austin in June.
There were also plenty of things related to the affordable models and other vehicles, like the fact that Tesla plans to include things like Steer by Wire, Adaptive Air Suspension, and Rear Wheel Steering, that helped offset negatives.
Stein saw this as a distraction from what should have been reported:
“While CEO Elon Musk played the role of cheerleader, calling for TSLA’s path to massive market cap by leading in autonomy, management was remarkably short on two critical details: (1) info about new vehicles in 2025 and (2) milestones for AI acheivements, especially FSD. We continue to ask ourselves ‘where’s the beef?’ CY26 EPS to $3.99 (from $4.87). DCF-derived PT to $373 (from $351).”
Tesla did detail some AI milestones, like its record-breaking miles per accident on Autopilot, which was a Q4-best of 5.94 million miles. The Shareholder Deck also outlined major upgrades to AI:
“In Q4, we completed the deployment of Cortex, a ~50k H100 training cluster at Gigafactory Texas. Cortex helped enable V13 of FSD (Supervised)1, which boasts major improvements in safety and comfort thanks to 4.2x increase in data, higher resolution video inputs, 2x reduction in photon-to-control latency and redesigned controller, among other enhancements.”
Tesla shares are up 2.11 percent on Thursday as of 12:05 p.m. on the East Coast.
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Tesla has released its Q4 2024 vehicle safety report. Similar to data from previous quarters, vehicles that were operating with Autopilot technology proved notably safer.
The Q4 2024 report:
- As per Tesla, it recorded one crash for every 5.94 million miles driven in which drivers were using Autopilot technology.
- The company also recorded one crash for every 1.08 million miles driven for drivers who were not using Autopilot technology.
- For comparison, the most recent data available from the NHTSA and FHWA (from 2023) showed that there was one automobile crash every 702,000 miles in the United States.
Previous safety reports:
- In Q3 2024, Tesla recorded one crash for every 7.08 million miles driven in which drivers were using Autopilot technology and one crash for every 1.29 million miles driven by drivers not using Autopilot technology.
- In Q2 2024, Tesla recorded one crash for every 6.88 million miles driven in which drivers were using Autopilot technology, and one crash for every 1.45 million miles driven for drivers not using Autopilot technology.
- In Q1 2024, Tesla recorded one crash for every 7.63 million miles driven in which drivers were using Autopilot technology, and one crash for every 955,000 million miles driven for drivers not using Autopilot technology.
Year-over-Year Comparison:
- In Q4 2023, Tesla recorded one crash for every 5.39 million miles driven in which drivers were using Autopilot technology and one crash for every 1.00 million miles driven for drivers not using Autopilot technology.
Key background:
- Tesla began voluntarily releasing quarterly safety reports in October 2018 to provide critical safety information about our vehicles to the public.
- On July 2019, Tesla started voluntarily releasing annual updated data about vehicle fires as well.
- It should be noted that accident rates among all vehicles on the road can vary from quarter to quarter and can be affected by seasonality, such as reduced daylight and inclement weather conditions.
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