Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) received a price target boost from analysts at Truist Securities, but it came with some criticisms based on a lack of information on several things that investors were excited to hear about regarding future vehicles and AI achievements.

Last night, Tesla reported its earnings from the fourth quarter of 2024, and while it had a very tempered financial showing, missing most of the Wall Street targets that were set for it, the stock was up after hours and on Thursday due to the details the company released regarding its plans for 2025.

CEO Elon Musk stunned listeners last night by revealing plans to launch unsupervised Full Self-Driving as a service in Austin in June 2025. It will be the first time Tesla will offer driverless FSD rides in public, something it has been working with the City of Austin on since December.

Tesla to launch unsupervised Full Self-Driving as a service in Austin in June

It also reiterated plans for affordable models to be launched this year, potentially catalyzing annual growth in deliveries, something it said it expects to resume in 2025.

Tesla was flat on deliveries in 2024 compared to 2023.

The positives during the call were enough for Truist Securities analyst William Stein to raise the company’s price target to $373 from $351. However, Stein’s note to investors showed there was something to be desired despite all the good that was revealed during the call:

Stein said there was “not enough ground-truth” during the call and too much of a focus on “cheerleading” the company’s potential releases this year:

“Too much cheerleading; not enough ground-truth. In Q4, TSLA’s ASP weakness drive revenue, GPM, OPM, & EPS below consensus.”

As previously mentioned, Tesla did report weak financials that missed consensus estimates. What saved the call and perhaps the stock from plummeting on these missed metrics was the other details that Musk revealed, especially the FSD launch in Austin in June.

There were also plenty of things related to the affordable models and other vehicles, like the fact that Tesla plans to include things like Steer by Wire, Adaptive Air Suspension, and Rear Wheel Steering, that helped offset negatives.

Stein saw this as a distraction from what should have been reported:

“While CEO Elon Musk played the role of cheerleader, calling for TSLA’s path to massive market cap by leading in autonomy, management was remarkably short on two critical details: (1) info about new vehicles in 2025 and (2) milestones for AI acheivements, especially FSD. We continue to ask ourselves ‘where’s the beef?’ CY26 EPS to $3.99 (from $4.87). DCF-derived PT to $373 (from $351).”

Tesla did detail some AI milestones, like its record-breaking miles per accident on Autopilot, which was a Q4-best of 5.94 million miles. The Shareholder Deck also outlined major upgrades to AI:

“In Q4, we completed the deployment of Cortex, a ~50k H100 training cluster at Gigafactory Texas. Cortex helped enable V13 of FSD (Supervised)1, which boasts major improvements in safety and comfort thanks to 4.2x increase in data, higher resolution video inputs, 2x reduction in photon-to-control latency and redesigned controller, among other enhancements.”

Tesla shares are up 2.11 percent on Thursday as of 12:05 p.m. on the East Coast.

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Tesla has released its Q4 2024 vehicle safety report. Similar to data from previous quarters, vehicles that were operating with Autopilot technology proved notably safer. 

The Q4 2024 report:

• As per Tesla, it recorded one crash for every 5.94 million miles driven in which drivers were using Autopilot technology.
• The company also recorded one crash for every 1.08 million miles driven for drivers who were not using Autopilot technology.
• For comparison, the most recent data available from the NHTSA and FHWA (from 2023) showed that there was one automobile crash every 702,000 miles in the United States.

Previous safety reports:

• In Q3 2024, Tesla recorded one crash for every 7.08 million miles driven in which drivers were using Autopilot technology and one crash for every 1.29 million miles driven by drivers not using Autopilot technology.
• In Q2 2024, Tesla recorded one crash for every 6.88 million miles driven in which drivers were using Autopilot technology, and one crash for every 1.45 million miles driven for drivers not using Autopilot technology.
• In Q1 2024, Tesla recorded one crash for every 7.63 million miles driven in which drivers were using Autopilot technology, and one crash for every 955,000 million miles driven for drivers not using Autopilot technology.

Year-over-Year Comparison:

• In Q4 2023, Tesla recorded one crash for every 5.39 million miles driven in which drivers were using Autopilot technology and one crash for every 1.00 million miles driven for drivers not using Autopilot technology.

Key background:

• Tesla began voluntarily releasing quarterly safety reports in October 2018 to provide critical safety information about our vehicles to the public.
• On July 2019, Tesla started voluntarily releasing annual updated data about vehicle fires as well.
• It should be noted that accident rates among all vehicles on the road can vary from quarter to quarter and can be affected by seasonality, such as reduced daylight and inclement weather conditions.

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Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) Q3 2024 earnings call comes on the heels of the company’s Q4 and FY 2024 Update Letter, which was released after the closing bell on January 29, 2025.

Tesla’s Q4 2024 results:

• Earnings Per Share (GAAP): $0.66 per share
• Earnings Per Share (Non-GAAP): $0.73 per share
• Operating Income: $7.1 billion GAAP; $7.1 billion GAAP net income in 2024; $2.3 billion in Q4 including $0.6 billion mark-to-market gain on digital assets.
• Total Revenues: $25.7 billion
• Total Automotive Revenues: $19.80 billion

Q4 & FY 2024 Earnings Call at 4:30pm CT today https://t.co/uFCg69a6tN

— Tesla (@Tesla) January 29, 2025

The following are live updates from Tesla’s Q4 and FY 2024 earnings call. I will be updating this article in real-time, so please keep refreshing the page to view the latest updates on this story. The first entry starts at the bottom of the page. 

17:41 CT – And that closes Tesla’s Q4 and FY 2024 earnings call! Thanks so much for joining us, and see you next quarter!

17:40 CT – Dan Levy of Barclays asks about Trump’s anti-EV mandate and Elon Musk’s view on it. The CEO noted that at this point, sustainable transport is inevitable. “At this point I think sustainable transport is inevitable. You can’t stop the advent of electric cars. It’s gonna happen. The only thing holding back electric cars is range, and that is a solved problem,” Musk said.

17:37 CT – Pierre Ferragu of New Street Research asked about Tesla’s plans to deploy robotaxis on June. He wonders if he can drive down to Texas in June to test it. Musk said sure, and at the time, Tesla would be using its own fleet for its initial autonomous ride-hailing program. Cars won’t be from individual owners.

Musk also predicts that Tesla owners will be able to add car their cars to the robotaxi fleet by next year.

Tesla is also working toward FSD Unsupervised which will allow people to check their emails, texts, etc., while the vehicle is in motion, but the company is very cautious. Tesla has seen that people are turning off FSD Unsupervised to check their texts.

17:30 CT – Adam Jonas of Morgan Stanley asked if Elon Musk still does not believe in Lidar. Elon Musk says he still does not. “Obviously, humans drive without shooting lasers out of their eyes,” Musk joked. He also explained that he is not anti-Lidar per se. He’s just anti-Lidar when it comes to autonomous cars.

17:25 CT – As for FSD in China, Musk noted that training videos in China cannot be exported out. Tesla figuring out how to train FSD Unsupervised in China. One of the challenges is bus lanes, which are very complex in China.

“Hopefully, we can have Unsupervised FSD in other countries next year,” Musk said.

17:18 CT – Analyst questions start with Bernstein. He asks Elon Musk about what he is doing to push Tesla’s management team to accelerate the company’s programs. Musk noted that Tesla is working on perfecting real-world AI. “I spend a lot of time with the Tesla AI team and the Tesla Optimus team,” he said.

Musk noted that there are many challenges with Optimus and vehicle autonomy, but the pieces are there. He predicts Europe will be a challenge for FSD Unsupervised. FSD Unsupervised is expected to be presented to the EU in the Netherlands in May, with a release probably next year.

17:15 CT – A question about HW3 vehicles was asked. Tesla noted that the company is not giving up on HW3. Tesla is still working on HW3 but updates will trail HW4 releases.

“We are going to have to upgrade Hardware 3 for people who bought FSD. That’s the honest answer. It’s going to be painful and difficult but that’s what we’re going to have to do,” Musk admitted.

Another question was asked if Tesla has given up on Solar Roof. Tesla noted that it has not. Musk noted that Tesla has found growth by distributing Solar Roof to the roofing industry.

17:14 CT – Another question is asked, this time about the Tesla Semi and how it will affect revenue and scale. Tesla noted that preparations for production are ongoing, and that production is expected to start late this year from Reno. He also thinks the Semi will be incredibly valuable with FSD Unsupervised.

Musk noted that the United States actually has a shortage of truck drivers. And truck drivers are human, so they get tired. “I have a lot of respect for truck drivers, because it’s a tough job,” Musk said.

He noted that more people are leaving trucking than those entering it. With this in mind, autonomy is extremely important. “It’s a several billion-a-year opportunity,” Musk said. That said, the CEO also noted that “all of this is gonna pale in comparison to Optimus.”

17:10 CT – Musk reiterated that Optimus will be used at Tesla factories first, doing tedious tasks that no one wants to do.

Optimus production Version 2–maybe starting mid-next year–will be designed for 10,000 units a month vs 1,000 units a month. Version 3 is for 100,000 units per month, and with Version 2, Optimus robots may be delivered to other companies.

“Demand will not be a problem, even at a high price,” Musk said. He also noted that at one million units per year, Optimus’ production costs will be around or less than $20,000.

17:04 CT – Another investor question asked if Optimus is designed locked. Musk noted that Optimus is not design-locked at all. However, the CEO noted that “it is rapidly evolving in a good direction.” Musk also noted that other companies are missing real-world AI and manufacturing capabilities.

17:03 CT – The next investor question asked if other carmakers are interested in licensing FSD. Elon Musk confirmed that yes, they are. “What we’re seeing is at this point is significant interest in licensing FSD,” the CEO noted. But before FSD is licensed, Tesla has to reach unsupervised FSD first.

17:01 CT – Investor questions begin. The first is about unsupervised FSD’s release. Musk noted that he believes unsupervised FSD in California and Texas this year, with many more regions at the end of 2025.

“We’re looking for a safety level that is significantly safer than a human driver,” Musk said. “The only thing holding us back is an excess in caution,” Musk said.

17:00 CT – The CFO noted that Tesla’s growth came from Megapack and Powerwall. Both continue to be production-constrained, which will hopefully be relieved by China, whose Shanghai Megafactory is producing Megapacks. Tariffs, however, are very likely, Tesla’s CFO noted.

16:58 CT – Tesla’s CFO takes the stage. He credits the Tesla team for its performance in Q4. He also discussed some milestones, such as record deliveries in the Greater China market, which is extremely competitive.

Cost reduction continues as well, despite increased depreciation and other costs as the company prepared for the new Model Y. Overall cost per car now down below $35,000.

The new Model Y will be produced in all factories supporting the vehicle starting next month. This is unprecedented in Tesla history.

He notes that Tesla is also on track to release a more affordable model in the first half of 2025, and there will be more models from there.

16:54 CT – Elon Musk predicts increased demand in energy business. That said, he does admit that Tesla always has to allocate its battery supply. “2025 is really a pivotal year for Tesla. It might be viewed as the most important year in Tesla history,” Musk said.

16:50 CT – Elon, however, admitted that he’s making insane predictions. He cautions that his predictions aren’t necessarily precise. That said, the target is to make 10,000 Optimus robots this year. Elon is confident that Tesla can produce a few thousand this year, with a goal to ramp Optimus production every year.

Optimus’ capabilities are expected to be very impressive. Musk notes that Optimus would be able to play the piano or thread a needle. That’s how precise its hands would be. “Optimus will be able to play the piano and be able to thread a needle,” Musk said.

16:48 CT – Tesla expects to launch Unsupervised FSD as a service in Austin in June. Musk noted that Tesla’s unsupervised FSD system is already working very well in the company’s factories.

“The cars aren’t just driving to the same spot. The cars are programmed to a lane” or a destination parking spot for pick up from customers. Teslas will be in the wild–with no one in them–in Austin in June,” Musk said.

16:45 CT – Musk noted that Tesla’s current constraints are battery packs for now. “Things are going to ballistic next year…and ’27, and ’28,” he said.

Musk also stated that the training needs for the Optimus robot is 10x what’s needed for a car. A humanoid robot, however, probably has 1000 more uses than a car.

“We live at this unbelievable inflection point in history,” Musk said.

16:40 CT – “I know I’ve been called the boy who cried wolf. I’m telling you, there’s a damn wolf this time. It can drive you,” Musk joked, discussing FSD and his past failed predictions about when unsupervised FSD will be ready.

He also highlighted that while FSD behaved like a neophyte driver before, it won’t be like that forever.

“The only people who are skeptical are those who haven’t tried it (FSD),” he said. He also highlighted the potential of the Tesla Network. “It works fine in the US, and of course, it will work just well anywhere else. The reality of autonomy is upon us,” Musk added.

16:38 CT – Elon takes the stage. He states that Tesla ended the year with a run rate of 2 million cars per year. The Model Y was the world’s best-selling car again in 2024. He shares an optimistic outlook on Tesla’s autonomy program.

“Autonomy is 10X-ing,” Musk said, adding that he still sees a path toward Tesla becoming the world’s most valuable company by a mile. “There’s a path to that,” he said.

Musk noted that Tesla laid the groundwork for autonomous cars and robots in 2024, and these efforts will continue in 2025. “This will set up what I think will be an epic 2026 and a ridiculously good 2027 and 2028,” Musk said.

16:34 CT – Here we go! Tesla’s IR announces that Tesla CEO Elon Musk and a number of executives are present at the call.

16:30 CT – It’s time! It won’t be surprising if Tesla starts a bit late. That being said, there will probably be quite a number of interesting discussions in this call.

Just recently, Tesla posted the first video of its FSD Unsupervised system working in the Fremont Factory. That’s a very big deal.

16:25 CT – Hello, and happy earnings day to everyone! Tesla missed some of Wall Street’s expectations, but TSLA stock seems to be doing pretty well in today’s after-hours. It’s up about 2.3% as of writing.

As always, this might be a very interesting earnings call.

Don’t hesitate to contact us with news tips. Just send a message to simon@teslarati.com to give us a heads up.