Investor's Corner
Tesla registers 13.6k new Mid Range Model 3 VINs after posting blockbuster earnings
After posting blockbuster quarterly results that pleasantly surprised Wall Street on Wednesday, Tesla has shown renewed signs that its Model 3 production ramp is gaining strength. On early Thursday, Tesla registered its largest single batch of Model 3 VINs yet, comprised of 13,629 vehicles, all of which are estimated to be RWD.
With this latest filing, Tesla had registered a total of 169,791 Model 3 to date. The absence of AWD VINs also bodes well for the demand for the Model 3’s newest variant — the Mid Range Model 3 — which utilizes a single motor at the rear, and costs less than the Long Range RWD Model 3, which starts at 49,000 before incentives.
#Tesla registered 13,629 new #Model3 VINs. ~0% estimated to be dual motor. Highest VIN is 169791. https://t.co/CbAbsrLRkz
— Model 3 VINs (@Model3VINs) October 25, 2018
The arrival of the Mid Range Model 3 came as a surprise for the vehicle’s reservation holders, particularly since the variant has not been announced prior to its launch. When the Model 3 was unveiled, Tesla had listed two RWD variants of the vehicle — a 220-mile Standard range version that starts at $35,000 and a 310-mile Long Range variant that starts at $49,000. The Mid Range Model 3, which has a range of 260 miles per charge, cost $45,000 when it was unveiled, though the price of the electric sedan was raised to $46,000 earlier this week.
The Mid Range Model 3 appears to be Tesla’s way of offering a lower-cost option for reservation holders who are holding out for the release of the $35,000 base Model 3. After the $7,500 tax credit and estimated gas savings, after all, the Mid Range Model 3’s cost of ownership falls to around $33,200. Elon Musk referenced the newly-announced Model 3 variant in the recently-held earnings call.
“We’re trying to provide (the) most affordable electric car options that we can. And so as we can — we just don’t have the ability to get to the $35,000 car right away. We thought this might be a way to offer it as an intermediate step. And that’s really it,” Musk said.
Considering the new wave of RWD VIN registrations, as well as the vehicle’s $1,000 price increase just days after it was released, it appears that the demand for the Mid Range Model 3 is quite notable. Since Elon Musk announced the car on Twitter, for one, Tesla had registered more than 18,000 RWD Model 3 VINs. Considering that the Long Range RWD variant is only available off-menu for now, it seems safe to infer that the majority of the vehicles corresponding to Tesla’s new VIN filings are Mid Range Model 3s.
The Tesla Model 3. [Credit: Tesla]
While Tesla delivered a blockbuster third quarter, the company’s fourth-quarter performance seems poised to be even more impressive. This Q4, Gigafactory 1 is expected to receive upgrades in the form of new Grohmann Machines that would make battery pack production cheaper and faster, as well as upgraded battery cell production lines from Panasonic. In terms of VIN registrations, October seems poised to set records for the company, with Tesla registering more than 51,000 VINs since the month began.
What is even more impressive is that Tesla is only partly done with its Model 3 production ramp, considering that the company is aiming to hit a production rate of 10,000 units of the electric car per week. Elon Musk proved optimistic about the ongoing ramp for the vehicle, though, as shown in his statements during the recent earnings call.
“Yeah, very minimal to get (Model 3 production) to 7,000 a week. And then I mean that’s really just basically solving improving our time of the existing lines, and we can do 7,000 a week. So and then it gets a little harder as you start to go above 7,000, it would need — at least bringing lines down in Fremont for significant upgrades to get to 10k,” Musk said.
Investor's Corner
Tesla is ‘better-positioned’ as a company and as a stock as tariff situation escalates
Tesla is “better-positioned” as a company and as a stock as the tariff situation between the United States, Mexico, and Canada continues to escalate as President Donald Trump announced sanctions against those countries.
Analysts at Piper Sandler are unconcerned regarding Tesla’s position as a high-level stock holding as the tariff drama continues to unfold. This is mostly due to its reputation as a vehicle manufacturer in the domestic market, especially as it holds a distinct advantage of having some of the most American-made vehicles in the country.
Analysts at the firm, led by Alexander Potter, said Tesla is “one of the most defensive stocks” in the automotive sector as the tariff situation continues.
The defensive play comes from the nature of the stock, which should not be too impacted from a U.S. standpoint because of its focus on building vehicles and sourcing parts from manufacturers and companies based in the United States. Tesla has held the distinct title of having several of the most American-made cars, based on annual studies from Cars.com.
Its most recent study, released in June 2024, showed that the Model Y, Model S, and Model X are three of the top ten vehicles with the most U.S.-based manufacturing.
Tesla captures three spots in Cars.com’s American-Made Index, only U.S. manufacturer in list
The year prior, Tesla swept the top four spots of the study.
Piper Sandler analysts highlighted this point in a new note on Monday morning amidst increasing tension between the U.S. and Canada, as Mexico has already started to work with the Trump Administration on a solution:
“Tesla assembles five vehicles in the U.S., and all five rank among the most American-made cars.”
However, with that being said, there is certainly the potential for things to get tougher. The analysts believe that Tesla, while potentially impacted, will be in a better position than most companies because of their domestic position:
“If nothing changes in the next few days, tariffs will almost certainly deal a crippling blow to automotive supply chains in North America. [There is a possibility that] Trump capitulates in some way (perhaps he’ll delay implementation, in an effort to save face).”
There is no evidence that Tesla will be completely bulletproof when it comes to these potential impacts. However, it is definitely better insulated than other companies.
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Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) received a price target boost from analysts at Truist Securities, but it came with some criticisms based on a lack of information on several things that investors were excited to hear about regarding future vehicles and AI achievements.
Last night, Tesla reported its earnings from the fourth quarter of 2024, and while it had a very tempered financial showing, missing most of the Wall Street targets that were set for it, the stock was up after hours and on Thursday due to the details the company released regarding its plans for 2025.
CEO Elon Musk stunned listeners last night by revealing plans to launch unsupervised Full Self-Driving as a service in Austin in June 2025. It will be the first time Tesla will offer driverless FSD rides in public, something it has been working with the City of Austin on since December.
Tesla to launch unsupervised Full Self-Driving as a service in Austin in June
It also reiterated plans for affordable models to be launched this year, potentially catalyzing annual growth in deliveries, something it said it expects to resume in 2025.
Tesla was flat on deliveries in 2024 compared to 2023.
The positives during the call were enough for Truist Securities analyst William Stein to raise the company’s price target to $373 from $351. However, Stein’s note to investors showed there was something to be desired despite all the good that was revealed during the call:
Stein said there was “not enough ground-truth” during the call and too much of a focus on “cheerleading” the company’s potential releases this year:
“Too much cheerleading; not enough ground-truth. In Q4, TSLA’s ASP weakness drive revenue, GPM, OPM, & EPS below consensus.”
As previously mentioned, Tesla did report weak financials that missed consensus estimates. What saved the call and perhaps the stock from plummeting on these missed metrics was the other details that Musk revealed, especially the FSD launch in Austin in June.
There were also plenty of things related to the affordable models and other vehicles, like the fact that Tesla plans to include things like Steer by Wire, Adaptive Air Suspension, and Rear Wheel Steering, that helped offset negatives.
Stein saw this as a distraction from what should have been reported:
“While CEO Elon Musk played the role of cheerleader, calling for TSLA’s path to massive market cap by leading in autonomy, management was remarkably short on two critical details: (1) info about new vehicles in 2025 and (2) milestones for AI acheivements, especially FSD. We continue to ask ourselves ‘where’s the beef?’ CY26 EPS to $3.99 (from $4.87). DCF-derived PT to $373 (from $351).”
Tesla did detail some AI milestones, like its record-breaking miles per accident on Autopilot, which was a Q4-best of 5.94 million miles. The Shareholder Deck also outlined major upgrades to AI:
“In Q4, we completed the deployment of Cortex, a ~50k H100 training cluster at Gigafactory Texas. Cortex helped enable V13 of FSD (Supervised)1, which boasts major improvements in safety and comfort thanks to 4.2x increase in data, higher resolution video inputs, 2x reduction in photon-to-control latency and redesigned controller, among other enhancements.”
Tesla shares are up 2.11 percent on Thursday as of 12:05 p.m. on the East Coast.
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Tesla has released its Q4 2024 vehicle safety report. Similar to data from previous quarters, vehicles that were operating with Autopilot technology proved notably safer.
The Q4 2024 report:
- As per Tesla, it recorded one crash for every 5.94 million miles driven in which drivers were using Autopilot technology.
- The company also recorded one crash for every 1.08 million miles driven for drivers who were not using Autopilot technology.
- For comparison, the most recent data available from the NHTSA and FHWA (from 2023) showed that there was one automobile crash every 702,000 miles in the United States.
Previous safety reports:
- In Q3 2024, Tesla recorded one crash for every 7.08 million miles driven in which drivers were using Autopilot technology and one crash for every 1.29 million miles driven by drivers not using Autopilot technology.
- In Q2 2024, Tesla recorded one crash for every 6.88 million miles driven in which drivers were using Autopilot technology, and one crash for every 1.45 million miles driven for drivers not using Autopilot technology.
- In Q1 2024, Tesla recorded one crash for every 7.63 million miles driven in which drivers were using Autopilot technology, and one crash for every 955,000 million miles driven for drivers not using Autopilot technology.
Year-over-Year Comparison:
- In Q4 2023, Tesla recorded one crash for every 5.39 million miles driven in which drivers were using Autopilot technology and one crash for every 1.00 million miles driven for drivers not using Autopilot technology.
Key background:
- Tesla began voluntarily releasing quarterly safety reports in October 2018 to provide critical safety information about our vehicles to the public.
- On July 2019, Tesla started voluntarily releasing annual updated data about vehicle fires as well.
- It should be noted that accident rates among all vehicles on the road can vary from quarter to quarter and can be affected by seasonality, such as reduced daylight and inclement weather conditions.
Don’t hesitate to contact us with news tips. Just send a message to simon@teslarati.com to give us a heads up.
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