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Piper Sandler expects Tesla to post 507k deliveries in Q4, 1.83M for 2023

Credit: Tesla Asia/Weibo

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1 year ago

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Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) has received an optimistic outlook from Piper Sandler, with the firm estimating that the electric vehicle maker would be able to achieve its ambitious vehicle delivery target for 2023. Piper Sandler analyst Alexander Potter also reiterated his “Overweight” rating and $295 per share price target for the company. 

In his recent comments, the analyst noted that Piper Sandler is expecting Tesla to post 507,000 vehicle deliveries for the fourth quarter of 2023. If the electric vehicle maker achieves this feat, the analyst noted that Tesla would be able to post a full-year total of about 1.83 million cars. Following is Potter’s comment. 

“Overweight-rated TSLA will be announcing Q4 deliveries early next week (probably on January 2nd). We are currently expecting the company to deliver 507k vehicles in the quarter, implying a full-year total of 1.83M units. After considering the latest intra-quarter data, we think our estimate appears doable (though admittedly, our forecast is perhaps on the high end of a believable range),” the analyst noted. 

Potter also noted that even if Piper Sandler’s estimate proves optimistic, Tesla would likely post record numbers this fourth quarter just the same. The firm also noted that it is optimistic about the company’s margins, which could see some improvements from the third quarter. Tesla’s margins this Q4 seem to be quite stable, considering the lack of volatility in the company’s vehicle prices this quarter.  

“Even if our estimate proves optimistic, we still think Q4 will set a record, with the annualized production rate exceeding 2M vehicles per year. We expect margins will also rise vs. Q3, given stable pricing and better fixed cost leverage. We will re-assess our margin forecast once Q4 delivery results have been released,” the analyst noted. 

For context, Tesla delivered a total of 422,875 vehicles in the first quarter, 466,140 vehicles in the second quarter, and 435,059 vehicles in the third quarter worldwide. For Tesla to achieve its goal of delivering 1,800,000 vehicles this year, the company would have to deliver about 476,000 cars this Q4. Tesla seems to have a decent shot at such a target, considering the smooth ramp of the Model 3 Highland in China and the strong sales of the Model Y worldwide. 

Don’t hesitate to contact us with news tips. Just send a message to simon@teslarati.com to give us a heads up.

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Simon is a reporter with a passion for electric cars and clean energy. Fascinated by the world envisioned by Elon Musk, he hopes to make it to Mars (at least as a tourist) someday.

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Investor's Corner

Tesla is ‘better-positioned’ as a company and as a stock as tariff situation escalates

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1 month ago

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February 3, 2025

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The Cybertruck-towed Model Y ad at Hayden Planetarium. Credit: Tesla North America | X

Tesla is “better-positioned” as a company and as a stock as the tariff situation between the United States, Mexico, and Canada continues to escalate as President Donald Trump announced sanctions against those countries.

Analysts at Piper Sandler are unconcerned regarding Tesla’s position as a high-level stock holding as the tariff drama continues to unfold. This is mostly due to its reputation as a vehicle manufacturer in the domestic market, especially as it holds a distinct advantage of having some of the most American-made vehicles in the country.

Analysts at the firm, led by Alexander Potter, said Tesla is “one of the most defensive stocks” in the automotive sector as the tariff situation continues.

The defensive play comes from the nature of the stock, which should not be too impacted from a U.S. standpoint because of its focus on building vehicles and sourcing parts from manufacturers and companies based in the United States. Tesla has held the distinct title of having several of the most American-made cars, based on annual studies from Cars.com.

Its most recent study, released in June 2024, showed that the Model Y, Model S, and Model X are three of the top ten vehicles with the most U.S.-based manufacturing.

Tesla captures three spots in Cars.com’s American-Made Index, only U.S. manufacturer in list

The year prior, Tesla swept the top four spots of the study.

Piper Sandler analysts highlighted this point in a new note on Monday morning amidst increasing tension between the U.S. and Canada, as Mexico has already started to work with the Trump Administration on a solution:

“Tesla assembles five vehicles in the U.S., and all five rank among the most American-made cars.”

However, with that being said, there is certainly the potential for things to get tougher. The analysts believe that Tesla, while potentially impacted, will be in a better position than most companies because of their domestic position:

“If nothing changes in the next few days, tariffs will almost certainly deal a crippling blow to automotive supply chains in North America. [There is a possibility that] Trump capitulates in some way (perhaps he’ll delay implementation, in an effort to save face).”

There is no evidence that Tesla will be completely bulletproof when it comes to these potential impacts. However, it is definitely better insulated than other companies.

Need accessories for your Tesla? Check out the Teslarati Marketplace:

Please email me with questions and comments at joey@teslarati.com. I’d love to chat! You can also reach me on Twitter @KlenderJoey, or if you have news tips, you can email us at tips@teslarati.com.

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Investor's Corner

Tesla gets price target boost from Truist, but it comes with criticism

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1 month ago

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January 30, 2025

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) received a price target boost from analysts at Truist Securities, but it came with some criticisms based on a lack of information on several things that investors were excited to hear about regarding future vehicles and AI achievements.

Last night, Tesla reported its earnings from the fourth quarter of 2024, and while it had a very tempered financial showing, missing most of the Wall Street targets that were set for it, the stock was up after hours and on Thursday due to the details the company released regarding its plans for 2025.

CEO Elon Musk stunned listeners last night by revealing plans to launch unsupervised Full Self-Driving as a service in Austin in June 2025. It will be the first time Tesla will offer driverless FSD rides in public, something it has been working with the City of Austin on since December.

Tesla to launch unsupervised Full Self-Driving as a service in Austin in June

It also reiterated plans for affordable models to be launched this year, potentially catalyzing annual growth in deliveries, something it said it expects to resume in 2025.

Tesla was flat on deliveries in 2024 compared to 2023.

The positives during the call were enough for Truist Securities analyst William Stein to raise the company’s price target to $373 from $351. However, Stein’s note to investors showed there was something to be desired despite all the good that was revealed during the call:

Stein said there was “not enough ground-truth” during the call and too much of a focus on “cheerleading” the company’s potential releases this year:

“Too much cheerleading; not enough ground-truth. In Q4, TSLA’s ASP weakness drive revenue, GPM, OPM, & EPS below consensus.”

As previously mentioned, Tesla did report weak financials that missed consensus estimates. What saved the call and perhaps the stock from plummeting on these missed metrics was the other details that Musk revealed, especially the FSD launch in Austin in June.

There were also plenty of things related to the affordable models and other vehicles, like the fact that Tesla plans to include things like Steer by Wire, Adaptive Air Suspension, and Rear Wheel Steering, that helped offset negatives.

Stein saw this as a distraction from what should have been reported:

“While CEO Elon Musk played the role of cheerleader, calling for TSLA’s path to massive market cap by leading in autonomy, management was remarkably short on two critical details: (1) info about new vehicles in 2025 and (2) milestones for AI acheivements, especially FSD. We continue to ask ourselves ‘where’s the beef?’ CY26 EPS to $3.99 (from $4.87). DCF-derived PT to $373 (from $351).”

Tesla did detail some AI milestones, like its record-breaking miles per accident on Autopilot, which was a Q4-best of 5.94 million miles. The Shareholder Deck also outlined major upgrades to AI:

“In Q4, we completed the deployment of Cortex, a ~50k H100 training cluster at Gigafactory Texas. Cortex helped enable V13 of FSD (Supervised)1, which boasts major improvements in safety and comfort thanks to 4.2x increase in data, higher resolution video inputs, 2x reduction in photon-to-control latency and redesigned controller, among other enhancements.”

Tesla shares are up 2.11 percent on Thursday as of 12:05 p.m. on the East Coast.

Need accessories for your Tesla? Check out the Teslarati Marketplace:

Please email me with questions and comments at joey@teslarati.com. I’d love to chat! You can also reach me on Twitter @KlenderJoey, or if you have news tips, you can email us at tips@teslarati.com.

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Investor's Corner

Tesla posts Q4 2024 vehicle safety report

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1 month ago

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January 29, 2025

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tesla-full-self-driving-unsupervised
(Source: Tesla)

Tesla has released its Q4 2024 vehicle safety report. Similar to data from previous quarters, vehicles that were operating with Autopilot technology proved notably safer. 

The Q4 2024 report:

  • As per Tesla, it recorded one crash for every 5.94 million miles driven in which drivers were using Autopilot technology.
  • The company also recorded one crash for every 1.08 million miles driven for drivers who were not using Autopilot technology.
  • For comparison, the most recent data available from the NHTSA and FHWA (from 2023) showed that there was one automobile crash every 702,000 miles in the United States.

Previous safety reports:

  • In Q3 2024, Tesla recorded one crash for every 7.08 million miles driven in which drivers were using Autopilot technology and one crash for every 1.29 million miles driven by drivers not using Autopilot technology.
  • In Q2 2024, Tesla recorded one crash for every 6.88 million miles driven in which drivers were using Autopilot technology, and one crash for every 1.45 million miles driven for drivers not using Autopilot technology.
  • In Q1 2024, Tesla recorded one crash for every 7.63 million miles driven in which drivers were using Autopilot technology, and one crash for every 955,000 million miles driven for drivers not using Autopilot technology.

Year-over-Year Comparison:

  • In Q4 2023, Tesla recorded one crash for every 5.39 million miles driven in which drivers were using Autopilot technology and one crash for every 1.00 million miles driven for drivers not using Autopilot technology.

Key background:

  • Tesla began voluntarily releasing quarterly safety reports in October 2018 to provide critical safety information about our vehicles to the public.
  • On July 2019, Tesla started voluntarily releasing annual updated data about vehicle fires as well.
  • It should be noted that accident rates among all vehicles on the road can vary from quarter to quarter and can be affected by seasonality, such as reduced daylight and inclement weather conditions.

Don’t hesitate to contact us with news tips. Just send a message to simon@teslarati.com to give us a heads up.

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