Investor's Corner
Famed hedge fund betting against Tesla reports massive loss to customers, Elon Musk trolls with gift offering
David Einhorn, a staunch Tesla critic and owner of Greenlight Capital fund, revealed on Tuesday that his bet against the electric car maker resulted in heavy losses for his firm during the first half of 2018. In Q2 alone, Greenlight Capital lost 5.4%, bringing the fund’s losses from January to June to 18.3%.
In a letter to investors acquired by Reuters on Tuesday, Einhorn revealed that his stance against Tesla aggravated Greenlight’s grim returns. During the second quarter, Tesla shares (NASDAQ:TSLA) rose 29%, becoming the hedge fund’s “second biggest loser.” Einhorn later added in a later note that the fund’s returns fell 0.4% more in July, bringing Greenlight’s total losses to 18.6% for the year.
Einhorn, who leased a Model S, has pushed the notion that Tesla’s electric cars are unreliable and even dangerous, while criticizing the California-based company’s cash burn. Despite his complaints, as well as increasingly negative media coverage on Tesla and Elon Musk, the company’s stock has remained strong, turning Einhorn’s short bet into substantial losses. In his letter to investors, the hedge fund owner admitted that mistakes had been made, and Greenlight’s returns over the past three years have been “far worse than we could have imagined.” Due to the fund’s performance, Einhorn revealed that some investors have run out of patience and asked for their money back.
Regardless of his fund’s losses, Einhorn still maintains his short position against Tesla, stating that he doubts the Model 3 could be “produced profitably anytime soon, if ever.” Einhorn also criticized Tesla’s ongoing initiatives to rush the Model 3 to reservation holders, as well as Elon Musk’s “erratic and desperate” behavior on social media.
“Right now the market is telling us we are wrong, wrong, wrong about nearly everything. We wonder whether surge production techniques to support self-congratulatory tweets are economically efficient ways of ramping production, or whether customers will be happy with the quality of a car rush through production to prove a point to short sellers. The most striking feature of the quarter is that Elon Musk appears erratic and desperate,” Einhorn wrote.
The Greenfield Capital owner also wrote in his letter that he has already made moves to stem the firm’s losses. Einhorn, for one, stated that he had covered most of the firm’s short position on Netflix Inc. between January and April. He also exited a bet on Resona Holdings, a Japanese bank, while selling Dillard’s at a loss. Furthermore, Einhorn covered a 5-year bet against Elekta AB with a small gain.
In response to reports of Einhorn opting not to renew his Model S’ lease, Tesla CEO Elon Musk fired off a tweet trolling the hedge fund owner.
Tragic. Will send Einhorn a box of short shorts to comfort him through this difficult time.
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) August 1, 2018
Tesla is set to release its Q2 financial report after markets close today, followed by an earnings call at 2:30 p.m. PST (5:30 p.m. EST). Consensus among Wall Street analysts suggests that Tesla would be reporting a loss of $2.81 per share, as well as a revenue of around $3.97 billion. Tesla is also expected to release figures about the Model 3’s ongoing ramp and delivery guidance for the rest of the year, considering that the company has recently crossed the 200,000-vehicle mark that triggers a phase-out period for the $7,500 federal tax credit granted to buyers of new electric cars.
As Tesla heads into what could very well be an earnings call signifying a turning point for the company, reports have also emerged from sources that the electric car maker plans to invest $5 billion to construct Gigafactory 3 in Shanghai. Tesla is reportedly looking to raise funds in China to finance a portion of the investment needed for the factory, which is expected to start producing vehicles by 2020.
Investor's Corner
Tesla is ‘better-positioned’ as a company and as a stock as tariff situation escalates
Tesla is “better-positioned” as a company and as a stock as the tariff situation between the United States, Mexico, and Canada continues to escalate as President Donald Trump announced sanctions against those countries.
Analysts at Piper Sandler are unconcerned regarding Tesla’s position as a high-level stock holding as the tariff drama continues to unfold. This is mostly due to its reputation as a vehicle manufacturer in the domestic market, especially as it holds a distinct advantage of having some of the most American-made vehicles in the country.
Analysts at the firm, led by Alexander Potter, said Tesla is “one of the most defensive stocks” in the automotive sector as the tariff situation continues.
The defensive play comes from the nature of the stock, which should not be too impacted from a U.S. standpoint because of its focus on building vehicles and sourcing parts from manufacturers and companies based in the United States. Tesla has held the distinct title of having several of the most American-made cars, based on annual studies from Cars.com.
Its most recent study, released in June 2024, showed that the Model Y, Model S, and Model X are three of the top ten vehicles with the most U.S.-based manufacturing.
Tesla captures three spots in Cars.com’s American-Made Index, only U.S. manufacturer in list
The year prior, Tesla swept the top four spots of the study.
Piper Sandler analysts highlighted this point in a new note on Monday morning amidst increasing tension between the U.S. and Canada, as Mexico has already started to work with the Trump Administration on a solution:
“Tesla assembles five vehicles in the U.S., and all five rank among the most American-made cars.”
However, with that being said, there is certainly the potential for things to get tougher. The analysts believe that Tesla, while potentially impacted, will be in a better position than most companies because of their domestic position:
“If nothing changes in the next few days, tariffs will almost certainly deal a crippling blow to automotive supply chains in North America. [There is a possibility that] Trump capitulates in some way (perhaps he’ll delay implementation, in an effort to save face).”
There is no evidence that Tesla will be completely bulletproof when it comes to these potential impacts. However, it is definitely better insulated than other companies.
Need accessories for your Tesla? Check out the Teslarati Marketplace:
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Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) received a price target boost from analysts at Truist Securities, but it came with some criticisms based on a lack of information on several things that investors were excited to hear about regarding future vehicles and AI achievements.
Last night, Tesla reported its earnings from the fourth quarter of 2024, and while it had a very tempered financial showing, missing most of the Wall Street targets that were set for it, the stock was up after hours and on Thursday due to the details the company released regarding its plans for 2025.
CEO Elon Musk stunned listeners last night by revealing plans to launch unsupervised Full Self-Driving as a service in Austin in June 2025. It will be the first time Tesla will offer driverless FSD rides in public, something it has been working with the City of Austin on since December.
Tesla to launch unsupervised Full Self-Driving as a service in Austin in June
It also reiterated plans for affordable models to be launched this year, potentially catalyzing annual growth in deliveries, something it said it expects to resume in 2025.
Tesla was flat on deliveries in 2024 compared to 2023.
The positives during the call were enough for Truist Securities analyst William Stein to raise the company’s price target to $373 from $351. However, Stein’s note to investors showed there was something to be desired despite all the good that was revealed during the call:
Stein said there was “not enough ground-truth” during the call and too much of a focus on “cheerleading” the company’s potential releases this year:
“Too much cheerleading; not enough ground-truth. In Q4, TSLA’s ASP weakness drive revenue, GPM, OPM, & EPS below consensus.”
As previously mentioned, Tesla did report weak financials that missed consensus estimates. What saved the call and perhaps the stock from plummeting on these missed metrics was the other details that Musk revealed, especially the FSD launch in Austin in June.
There were also plenty of things related to the affordable models and other vehicles, like the fact that Tesla plans to include things like Steer by Wire, Adaptive Air Suspension, and Rear Wheel Steering, that helped offset negatives.
Stein saw this as a distraction from what should have been reported:
“While CEO Elon Musk played the role of cheerleader, calling for TSLA’s path to massive market cap by leading in autonomy, management was remarkably short on two critical details: (1) info about new vehicles in 2025 and (2) milestones for AI acheivements, especially FSD. We continue to ask ourselves ‘where’s the beef?’ CY26 EPS to $3.99 (from $4.87). DCF-derived PT to $373 (from $351).”
Tesla did detail some AI milestones, like its record-breaking miles per accident on Autopilot, which was a Q4-best of 5.94 million miles. The Shareholder Deck also outlined major upgrades to AI:
“In Q4, we completed the deployment of Cortex, a ~50k H100 training cluster at Gigafactory Texas. Cortex helped enable V13 of FSD (Supervised)1, which boasts major improvements in safety and comfort thanks to 4.2x increase in data, higher resolution video inputs, 2x reduction in photon-to-control latency and redesigned controller, among other enhancements.”
Tesla shares are up 2.11 percent on Thursday as of 12:05 p.m. on the East Coast.
Need accessories for your Tesla? Check out the Teslarati Marketplace:
- https://shop.teslarati.com/collections/tesla-cybertruck-accessories
- https://shop.teslarati.com/collections/tesla-model-y-accessories
- https://shop.teslarati.com/collections/tesla-model-3-accessories
Please email me with questions and comments at joey@teslarati.com. I’d love to chat! You can also reach me on Twitter @KlenderJoey, or if you have news tips, you can email us at tips@teslarati.com.
Tesla has released its Q4 2024 vehicle safety report. Similar to data from previous quarters, vehicles that were operating with Autopilot technology proved notably safer.
The Q4 2024 report:
- As per Tesla, it recorded one crash for every 5.94 million miles driven in which drivers were using Autopilot technology.
- The company also recorded one crash for every 1.08 million miles driven for drivers who were not using Autopilot technology.
- For comparison, the most recent data available from the NHTSA and FHWA (from 2023) showed that there was one automobile crash every 702,000 miles in the United States.
Previous safety reports:
- In Q3 2024, Tesla recorded one crash for every 7.08 million miles driven in which drivers were using Autopilot technology and one crash for every 1.29 million miles driven by drivers not using Autopilot technology.
- In Q2 2024, Tesla recorded one crash for every 6.88 million miles driven in which drivers were using Autopilot technology, and one crash for every 1.45 million miles driven for drivers not using Autopilot technology.
- In Q1 2024, Tesla recorded one crash for every 7.63 million miles driven in which drivers were using Autopilot technology, and one crash for every 955,000 million miles driven for drivers not using Autopilot technology.
Year-over-Year Comparison:
- In Q4 2023, Tesla recorded one crash for every 5.39 million miles driven in which drivers were using Autopilot technology and one crash for every 1.00 million miles driven for drivers not using Autopilot technology.
Key background:
- Tesla began voluntarily releasing quarterly safety reports in October 2018 to provide critical safety information about our vehicles to the public.
- On July 2019, Tesla started voluntarily releasing annual updated data about vehicle fires as well.
- It should be noted that accident rates among all vehicles on the road can vary from quarter to quarter and can be affected by seasonality, such as reduced daylight and inclement weather conditions.
Don’t hesitate to contact us with news tips. Just send a message to simon@teslarati.com to give us a heads up.
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