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Analysts and Energy Experts Weigh in on Tesla’s Powerwall

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10 years ago

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“Data wins” is the zeitgeist of today’s tech culture and number crunching is now being done by energy experts and analysts around Tesla’s new Powerwall products. Numerous analysts are focusing on the prodigious sums of capital being spent by Tesla in many product areas lately and now want to see if battery revenue will come sooner or later for the company.

According to Bidness ETC post, “UBS,the financial services firm, predicts that the 7kWh version of the Powerwall will have a payback in six years for the consumer, and will also deliver an Internal Rate of Return (IRR) of about 9%” in Australia for Tesla. UBS concludes a payback in little as six years will be very attractive in Australia and, if the project is reaping such a return, it means that the Powerwall will be adopted by the mass-market sooner than expected.”

The reason for the bullish prediction is due to Australia’s “massive solar penetration,” and total cost for the system at approximately $5,175 (U.S.), according to UBS.

Elon-Musk-PowerPack-Solar-Energy

Aug 30, TeslaEnergy event: Elon Musk describing the commercial-grade Tesla PowerPack’s ability to power entire cities.

Musk mentioned in the most recent conference call that the 7kWh battery pack would be ideal for countries outside the US. This seems to the be the case according to UBS and maybe Germany, too.

A recent post at the Catalytic Engineering blog examines the 7kWh powerwall product for Germany and how it could be a perfect fit due the frugal use of energy by consumers—partially due to its high cost in the country. According to the site, Germans average energy around 3,000-4,000 kWh /household/year, which works out to 8-11 kWh/day.”

The site ran a test case for Germany and see the summary below:

That means the baseline case, where you already have the solar panel, but don’t buy the Powerwall. As a result, you sell that surplus solar power directly to the grid at the $0.12 rate. After currency exchange and this earns a net present value of $2,911 over 10 years (again, in constant 2015 dollars).

The difference is so small with these assumptions, that buying the Powerwall basically breaks even versus not buying one. As prices come down and installers compete to install the product, it looks to be even more viable on a purely economic basis.

Also included in the post is an online calculator and the ability to determine whether your own solar panel setup is suited for a battery storage solution.

Data and context wins the day in the scenario above and past research by Navigant shows a great desire for green power (solar) by electric car owners. The only fly in the ointment is the death-to-solar agenda by utilities, such as WE Energy in Wisconsin and Arizona utilities (See Solar City’s letter). These utilities are attaching substantial fees to solar owners that negate or slow down a quicker return on investment.

So for the time being, it looks like data for battery storage is holding its own and flys in the face of Bloomberg’s Powerwall analysis from earlier this month.

Now if data would win in state capitols and in Congress, we could really be doing something.

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"Grant Gerke wears his Model S on his sleeve and has been writing about Tesla for the last five years on numerous media sites. He has a bias towards plug-in vehicles and also writes about manufacturing software for Automation World magazine in Chicago. Find him at Teslarati

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Energy

Tesla Energy had a blockbuster 2024

Published

2 months ago

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December 31, 2024

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla Energy has become the undisputed dark horse of the electric vehicle maker. This was highlighted by Tesla Energy’s growing role in the company’s overall operations in the past quarters. 

And as per Tesla’s year-end milestone posts on X, Tesla Energy had a blockbuster 2024.

Tesla Energy’s 2024 milestones:

  • As per Tesla on its official social media account on X, the company has hit over 800,000 Powerwalls installed worldwide. 
  • From this number, over 100,000 Powerwall batteries have been enrolled in virtual power plant (VPP) programs.
  • The Powerwall 3 has officially been launched in the United States, Canada, Puerto Rico, the U.K., Germany, Italy, Australia, and New Zealand.
  • The Tesla Megapack hit over 22 GWh in operation across more than 60 countries across the globe.
  • The Lathrop Megafactory, which produces the Megapack, has been ramped to 40 GWh per year. 
  • The Lathrop Megafactory has also produced its 10,000th Megapack battery.
  • The Shanghai Megafactory was completed in just seven months, and it is ready to start Megapack production in Q1 2025.

Powerwall owners’ 2024 impact:

  • As per Tesla Energy, Powerwall owners generated a total of 4.5 TWh of solar energy globally in 2024. This was equivalent to powering a Model 3 for more than 17 billion miles.
  • A total of 1.1 TWh of energy was stored in Powerwalls in 2024. This protected homes from over 5.8 million outages during the year.
  • Tesla’s Storm Watch feature for Powerwall batteries covered 2.8 million severe weather events over the year.
  • Powerwall owners saw collective savings of over $800 million on utility bills.
  • Virtual Power Plants contributed over 2.2 GWh of power to the grid. This reduced the need for 2,200 metric tons of fossil fuel peaker plant emissions.

Don’t hesitate to contact us with news tips. Just send a message to simon@teslarati.com to give us a heads up.

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Energy

Utah’s rPlus Energies breaks ground on Tesla Megapack battery system

Published

5 months ago

on

September 24, 2024

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Credit: Tesla

Utah-based rPlus Energies recently held the groundbreaking ceremony for the Green River Energy Center, a 400 MW solar PV and 400 MW/1,600 MWh battery storage project in Eastern Utah. Tesla Megapacks will be used as the upcoming facility’s battery storage solution. 

At 400 MW/1,600 MWh, the Green River Energy Center is expected to become one of the largest solar-plus-storage projects under development in the United States. Once operational, the facility would supply power to PacifiCorp under a power purchase agreement, as noted in a press release. 

Utah Gov. Spencer Cox shared his excitement for the project during the Green River Energy Center’s groundbreaking event. As per the Utah Governor, the solar and battery storage system represents a notable step forward for the state’s sustainable energy efforts. 

“This project is being built in rural Utah, by rural Utahns, and for all of Utah. When rural Utah thrives, the entire state prospers. Today, we’re not just breaking ground—we’re building a future of affordable, abundant energy in Utah,” the official noted. 

The Green River Energy Center secured over $1 billion in construction debt financing earlier this year. The facility is also expected to create about 500 jobs, many of which will be filled by local workers. With this in mind, the solar and battery farm would likely prove to be a boost to Emery County’s economy, enhancing tax revenue, strengthening public services, and offering long-term employment opportunities for the area’s residents. 

Sundt Construction will serve as the project’s contractor, EliTe Solar will supply the solar modules, and Tesla will provide the battery storage system for the project. Luigi Resta, President and CEO of rPlus Energies, noted that the Green River Energy Center is special because of the entities that have worked together to make the facility a reality. 

“It’s the partners that make this project special, that have made this monumental project possible. From our equipment providers to the onsite talent, and the support of the local and regional community, we owe this project’s success to each of you,” he stated. 

Don’t hesitate to contact us with news tips. Just send a message to simon@teslarati.com to give us a heads up.

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Energy

Tesla Energy loses director who brought Autobidder

Published

6 months ago

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September 5, 2024

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(Credit: Tesla)

Tesla Energy is losing a director who brought Autobidder, a real-time trading and control platform that provides value-based asset management and portfolio optimization, to the company.

Rohan Ma, who has been at Tesla for just under eight years, announced he would depart the company on LinkedIn, aiming to take on a new opportunity elsewhere.

Ma posted:

“After eight years at Tesla, this will be my last week. It was a ride of a lifetime! Today, Tesla Energy is thriving and I can confidently say it’s in the best position it has ever been in to drive impact toward the original mission I signed up for. I’m proud to have contributed over the years to where it is now, and will be cheering the team on from the sidelines as they carry the torch forward and continue to relentlessly solve problems at the frontier of the energy transition.”

Ma started as the Senior Manager of Energy Optimization at Tesla back in November 2016. After four-and-a-half years at the position, he then moved on to a new role as the Director of Energy and Software Optimization. He has been in that role for over three years.

The exit of Ma is the latest in Tesla’s tough year in terms of losing high-level employees.

Earlier this year, as a part of widespread layoffs, Tesla eliminated up to 20 percent of its workforce and people like Rebecca Tinucci, who was the company’s Senior Director of EV Charging.

Tesla also lost Rohan Patel, Vice President of Global Public Policy and Business Development, and Martin Viecha, who was Head of Investor Relations, are just a few notables to depart.

Autobidder

Tesla’s Autobidder platform helps owners and operators make money by autonomously monetizing battery assets. It is a real-time trading and control platform that maximizes revenue according to business objectives and risk preferences.

Tesla Megapack, Autobidder to be deployed in big battery project in Queensland

Autobidder already has hundreds of megawatt-hours under management and continues to scale. It is hosted on Tesla’s secure cloud infrastructure that is engineered to handle large and complex computations.

Without Ma’s expertise, Autobidder would likely not be involved in Tesla’s Energy division at all, and although it is not frequently discussed, it is still a major part of the business’s growth over the past several years.

I’d love to hear from you! If you have any comments, concerns, or questions, please email me at joey@teslarati.com. You can also reach me on Twitter @KlenderJoey, or if you have news tips, you can email us at tips@teslarati.com.

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