Firmware
Tesla’s end-of-Q3 gameplan is coming together with Software V9’s release
The end of the third quarter is drawing nearer, and Tesla is going full throttle in its efforts to achieve its ambitious self-imposed goals, including the production of 50,000-55,000 Model 3 and attaining profitability. As Tesla adopts out-of-the-box solutions to deliver as many vehicles as it can to reservation holders, the company also seems poised to get an end-of-quarter boost with the impending rollout of Software Version 9.
To say that Tesla stock (NASDAQ:TSLA) exhibited a lot of volatility over the past few months is an understatement. Since the start of the third quarter, Tesla shares traded as high as $387.46 and as low as $252.25. While Tesla stock has always been volatile, some of its wild swings this Q3 were actually augmented by Elon Musk’s actions. Earlier this month, for example, news of former CAO Dave Morton and ex-Chief People Officer Gabrielle Toledano’s departure from the company ended were augmented by reports of Musk’s behavior during a podcast with comedian Joe Rogan, where he seemingly puffed cannabis on air. On that day, Tesla stock dropped more than 5%, closing at $263.24 per share.
Amidst the drama that surrounded Tesla this quarter, such as its short-lived go-private initiative, as well as reservations about Elon Musk’s capability to lead the company, some Wall Street analysts such as Baird’s Ben Kallo have noted that the electric car maker’s fundamentals, particularly those directly connected to the ongoing Model 3 ramp, are encouraging nonetheless. Even some of the company’s longtime critics such as Goldman Sachs’ David Tamberrino recently stated that Tesla would likely meet its target of producing and delivering more than 50,000 Model 3 in the third quarter.
If Tesla does meet its Q3 production and delivery targets for its electric cars, the company can take a huge step forward towards profitability. Over the past months, Elon Musk has boldly stated that he expects Tesla to start showing a profit in the second half of 2018. Musk emphasized this in the company’s Q2 earnings call, when he noted that he “really want(s) to emphasize (Tesla’s) goal to be profitable and cash-flow positive for every quarter, going forward.” Tesla’s ongoing end-of-quarter delivery blitz, which has so far involved out-of-the-box strategies, including a program involving volunteer owners helping in vehicle handovers, and Tesla building its own car carriers to address bottlenecks in the transportation of cars from the Fremont factory to delivery centers across the United States.
At this point, it appears safe to assume that Tesla would likely meet its production and delivery targets for Q3. Updates about the Model 3 ramp would probably be optimistic as well. Considering Tesla’s self-imposed goals, Elon Musk’s announcements, and the company’s ongoing delivery initiatives, it appears that the electric car maker’s gameplan for Q3 is coming together. But this might not be all.
On Tuesday, Elon Musk announced that Software Version 9, a highly-anticipated update expected to include the first features of Tesla’s Full Self-Driving suite, will likely see a wide rollout at the end of the week. Not long after Musk’s post, owners who are members of Tesla’s early access program received Version 9, and based on screenshots of the revamped firmware, it appears that the update would include improvements and several new functionalities. It remains to be seen if Software V9 lives up to the hype, but if it gets well-received by Tesla’s consumer base, the company could end up adding one more item to its list of accomplishments for Q3.
Tesla is arguably one of the most emotional stocks in the market, attracting an equal number of passionate supporters and aggressive critics. As exhibited in the past few months, TSLA stock has a tendency to react on investors’ sentiment, to the point where Elon Musk’s questionable online actions affect the movement of the company’s shares. In this sense, every optimistic update from the company in these final days of Q3 would probably help determine TSLA’s trend in the coming weeks. Tesla’s end-of-Q3 play has so far involved a big push to deliver as many vehicles as possible. Augmented by Software Version 9’s release, Q3 2018 could be Tesla’s most impressive quarter yet.
Disclosure: I have no ownership in shares of TSLA and have no plans to initiate any positions within 72 hours.
It appears that Tesla may be preparing to roll out some subscription-based services soon. Based on the observations of a Wales-based Model 3 owner who performed some reverse-engineering on the Tesla mobile app, it seems that the electric car maker has added a new “Subscribe” option beside the “Buy” option within the “Upgrades” tab, at least behind the scenes.
A screenshot of the new option was posted in the r/TeslaMotors subreddit, and while the Tesla owner in question, u/Callump01, admitted that the screenshot looks like something that could be easily fabricated, he did submit proof of his reverse-engineering to the community’s moderators. The moderators of the r/TeslaMotors subreddit confirmed the legitimacy of the Model 3 owner’s work, further suggesting that subscription options may indeed be coming to Tesla owners soon.
Did some reverse engineering on the app and Tesla looks to be preparing for subscriptions? from r/teslamotors
Tesla’s Full Self-Driving suite has been heavily speculated to be offered as a subscription option, similar to the company’s Premium Connectivity feature. And back in April, noted Tesla hacker @greentheonly stated that the company’s vehicles already had the source codes for a pay-as-you-go subscription model. The Tesla hacker suggested then that Tesla would likely release such a feature by the end of the year — something that Elon Musk also suggested in the first-quarter earnings call. “I think we will offer Full Self-Driving as a subscription service, but it will be probably towards the end of this year,” Musk stated.
While the signs for an upcoming FSD subscription option seem to be getting more and more prominent as the year approaches its final quarter, the details for such a feature are still quite slim. Pricing for FSD subscriptions, for example, have not been teased by Elon Musk yet, though he has stated on Twitter that purchasing the suite upfront would be more worth it in the long term. References to the feature in the vehicles’ source code, and now in the Tesla mobile app, also listed no references to pricing.
The idea of FSD subscriptions could prove quite popular among electric car owners, especially since it would allow budget-conscious customers to make the most out of the company’s driver-assist and self-driving systems without committing to the features’ full price. The current price of the Full Self-Driving suite is no joke, after all, being listed at $8,000 on top of a vehicle’s cost. By offering subscriptions to features like Navigate on Autopilot with automatic lane changes, owners could gain access to advanced functions only as they are needed.
Elon Musk, for his part, has explained that ultimately, he still believes that purchasing the Full Self-Driving suite outright provides the most value to customers, as it is an investment that would pay off in the future. “I should say, it will still make sense to buy FSD as an option as in our view, buying FSD is an investment in the future. And we are confident that it is an investment that will pay off to the consumer – to the benefit of the consumer.” Musk said.
Tesla has started rolling out update 2020.36 this weekend, introducing a couple of notable new features for its vehicles. While there are only a few handful of vehicles that have reportedly received the update so far, 2020.36 makes it evident that the electric car maker has made some strides in its efforts to refine its driver-assist systems for inner-city driving.
Tesla is currently hard at work developing key features for its Full Self-Driving suite, which should allow vehicles to navigate through inner-city streets without driver input. Tesla’s FSD suite is still a work in progress, though the company has released the initial iterations of key features such Traffic Light and Stop Sign Control, which was introduced last April. Similar to the first release of Navigate on Autopilot, however, the capabilities of Traffic Light and Stop Sign Control were pretty basic during their initial rollout.
2020.36 Showing Speed Limit Signs in Visualization from r/teslamotors
With the release of update 2020.36, Tesla has rolled out some improvements that should allow its vehicles to handle traffic lights better. What’s more, the update also includes a particularly useful feature that enables better recognition of speed limit signs, which should make Autopilot’s speed adjustments better during use. Following are the Release Notes for these two new features.
Green Traffic Light Chime
“A chime will play when the traffic light you are waiting for turns green. If you are waiting behind another car, the chime will play once the car advances unless Traffic-Aware Cruise Control or Autosteer is active. When Traffic Light and Stop Sign Control is activated, a chime will play when you can confirm to proceed through a green traffic light. To enable, tap Controls > Autopilot > Green Traffic Light Chime.
“Note: This chime is only designed as a notification. It is the driver’s responsibility to observe their environment and make decisions accordingly.”
Speed Assist Improvements
“Speed Assist now leverages your car’s cameras to detect speed limit signs to improve the accuracy of speed limit data on local roads. Detected speed limit signs will be displayed in the driving visualization and used to set the associated Speed Limit Warning.
“As usual, to adjust Speed Assist settings, tap Controls > Autopilot > Speed Limit.”
Footage of the new green light chime in action via @NASA8500 on Twitter ✈️ from r/teslamotors
Amidst the rollout of 2020.36’s new features, speculations were abounding among Tesla community members that this update may include the first pieces of the company’s highly-anticipated Autopilot rewrite. Inasmuch as the idea is exciting, however, Tesla CEO Elon Musk has stated that this was not the case. While responding to a Tesla owner who asked if the Autopilot rewrite is in “shadow mode” in 2020.36, Musk responded “Not yet.”
Tesla has rolled out a free three-month trial subscription to Sirius XM, in what appears to be the company’s latest push into making its vehicles’ entertainment systems more feature-rich. The new Sirius XM offer will likely be appreciated by owners of the company’s vehicles, especially considering that the service is among the most popular satellite radios in the country today.
Tesla announced its new offer in an email sent on Monday. An image that accompanied the communication also teased Tesla’s updated and optimized Sirius XM UI for its vehicles. Following is the email’s text.
“Beginning now, enjoy a free, All Access three-month trial subscription to Sirius XM, plus a completely new look and improved functionality. Our latest over-the-air software update includes significant improvements to overall Sirius XM navigation, organization, and search features, including access to more than 150 satellite channels.
“To access simply tap the Sirius XM app from the ‘Music’ section of your in-car center touchscreen—or enjoy your subscription online, on your phone, or at home on connected devices. If you can’t hear SiriusXM channels in your car, select the Sirius XM ‘Subscription’ tab for instruction on how to refresh your audio.”
Tesla has actually been working on Sirius XM improvements for some time now. Back in June, for example, Tesla rolled out its 2020.24.6.4 update, and it included some optimizations to its Model S and Model X’s Sirius XM interface. As noted by noted Tesla owner and hacker @greentheonly, the source code of this update revealed that the Sirius XM optimizations were also intended to be released to other areas such as Canada.
Interestingly enough, Sirius XM is a popular feature that has been exclusive to the Model S and X. Tesla’s most popular vehicle to date, the Model 3, is yet to receive the feature. One could only hope that Sirius XM integration to the Model 3 may eventually be included in the future. Such an update would most definitely be appreciated by the EV community, especially since some Model 3 owners have resorted to using their smartphones or third-party solutions to gain access to the satellite radio service.
The fact that Tesla seems to be pushing Sirius XM rather assertively to its customers seems to suggest that the company may be poised to roll out more entertainment-based apps in the coming months. Apps such as Sirius XM, Spotify, Netflix, and YouTube, may seem quite minor when compared to key functions like Autopilot, after all, but they do help round out the ownership experience of Tesla owners. In a way, Sirius XM does make sense for Tesla’s next-generation of vehicles, especially the Cybertruck and the Semi, both of which would likely be driven in areas that lack LTE connectivity.
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