Lifestyle
Should I get a Tesla Model S now or wait for the Model 3?
If you’ve been a follower of my posts, you’ll know that I’m an early Model S adopter who’s been salivating over every new feature Tesla has released since 2014. At the top of my list is all wheel drive (I live in New England) followed by Autopilot (I’m a geek who loves technology and I also drive a lot) and a nice-to-have such as automatic high beams.
I’ve been fighting the urge to upgrade my Model S for 2.5 years now and it certainly doesn’t help that Tesla has been so kind to remind me of all the newest features I don’t have.
I feel bothered by this for a couple of reasons:
- Tesla has repeatedly said they’re supply-constrained. They are supposed to have plenty of demand. So why chase existing owners repeatedly with a proposal that doesn’t seem to make sense? As an investor in $TSLA, this has me concerned.
- It doesn’t make economic sense for me to upgrade.
Let me explain.
Bear in mind that my scenarios may different from yours or someone else, but nevertheless I thought it’s worth sharing.
Scenario 1 – Upgrade now to a new Model S
If I were to get a new Model S I’d want one with at least the amount of range, if not more, than what I already have (85 kWh). This makes the Model S 90D my preferred choice. Features I opted out of from my first purchase could remain off. Smart Air Suspension: not needed. High Fidelity Sound System: nope. More power: tempting, but no thanks. However, I do want dual motor all-wheel drive and Autopilot, but you already knew that.
Had I purchased late in 2014 (versus early in 2014) I wouldn’t have any appetite for a Model S or Model 3 at this point.
Configuring a new Model S 90D with my bare minimums costs approximately $110,000.
Tesla’s “Full Self-Driving Capability” is one of the most questionable choices here and an option that could be skipped for a later time. My main question on this upgrade is whether hardware is bundled upfront and the feature gets “turned on” as a software upgrade at a later date or is the hardware a completely separate upgrade in itself. For me, I want all possible hardware upfront whether it be a Model 3 or Model S.
My current Model S is at 70,000 miles, 2.5 years old and in perfect shape. Its value? $49,000 according to Tesla, as a trade-in. It could be a bit less now since the trade-in quote is several months old. What this means is that it would cost me nearly $60,000, out of pocket or through financing, to upgrade to the latest and greatest.
This excludes any benefits or tax incentives which may or may not be available for Scenario 2 below.
Scenario 2 – Wait for Model 3 and trade in my Model S
Everything we’ve seen and heard about the Model 3 thus far implies that it will have all the same capabilities as the Model S but through add-ons.
The Model 3 appears to be 80-90% of the size of the Model S. The Model 3 seats 5 comfortably. The Model 3 will have the option for dual motors and all-wheel drive. And Tesla will obviously put a heavy emphasis on Autopilot and autonomous driving features on the Model 3.
If we take a look at the pricing model for the Model S and Model X, a fully loaded version of each vehicle is just over twice the base price. For example, the most basic Tesla Model S 60 today is $66,000 and a fully loaded P100DL is $160,000 (2.4 times the base). Since I would not want a fully loaded Model 3, I’ll use twice the base price for my sample calculation.
If the Model 3 truly starts at a base price of $35,000 and we double that to a “reasonably equipped” version, we can assume the price for the Model 3 can jump to $70,000 and beyond. Since there’s no question that my trade-in value will be less a year from now, and dropping from $49,000 to likely $40,000, my net out of pocket would be $30,000, or half the cost of upgrading now. That is a pretty wide gap!
So I wait
Each time Tesla contacts me with an upgrade opportunity, I ask the representative to provide a cost benefit on such an upgrade. And each time they ignore my reply. I personally think Tesla should at least respond to their current customers and provide an answer to a very reasonable question.
Tesla is an amazing company, has great products and holds a bright future, but their sales team could do a better job in communicating the benefits for existing owners to upgrade. The recent price hike in the Model S also doesn’t help convince existing owners the value of upgrading versus waiting it out for the Model 3.
I question – Is there enough product differentiation between the Model S and the Model 3? From where I sit right now, no, there isn’t.
Are you a Model S owner getting the same emails? Are you a new buyer thinking about the Model S now versus waiting on the Model 3? I’d love to hear your thoughts on this. Leave me a comment.
Elon Musk has been pretty open about the idea of FSD being the difference maker for Tesla’s future.
If Tesla succeeds in achieving FSD, it could become the world’s most valuable company. If it doesn’t, then the company would not be able to reach its optimum potential.
FSD Supervised’s safety benefits:
- But even if FSD is still not perfect today, FSD Supervised is already making a difference on the roads today.
- This was highlighted in Tesla’s Q4 2024 Vehicle Safety Report.
- As per Tesla, it recorded one crash for every 5.94 million miles driven in which drivers were using Autopilot technology.
- For comparison, the most recent data available from the NHTSA and FHWA (from 2023) showed that there was one automobile crash every 702,000 miles in the United States.
This morning, Tesla FSD proved to be an absolute godsend. I had to take my brother-in-law to the hospital in Sugar Land, TX, which is 40 miles away, at the ungodly hour of 4 AM. Both of us were exhausted, and he was understandably anxious about the surgery.
— JC Christopher (@JohnChr08117285) January 29, 2025
The convenience of…
FSD user’s tale:
- As per an FSD user’s post on social media platform X, FSD Supervised was able to help him drive a relative to a medical facility safely even if he was exhausted.
- During the trip, the driver only had to monitor FSD Supervised’s performance to make sure the Tesla operated safely.
- In a vehicle without FSD, such a trip with an exhausted driver would have been quite dangerous.
- “This morning, Tesla FSD proved to be an absolute godsend. I had to take my brother-in-law to the hospital in Sugar Land, TX, which is 40 miles away, at the ungodly hour of 4 AM. Both of us were exhausted, and he was understandably anxious about the surgery.
- “The convenience of sending the hospital’s address directly from my iPhone to my Tesla while still inside my house, then just a single button press once inside, and 40 miles later we were precisely in front of the hospital’s admissions area.This experience really underscores just how transformative this technology can be for society,” Tesla owner JC Christopher noted in his post.
Don’t hesitate to contact us with news tips. Just send a message to simon@teslarati.com to give us a heads up.
There are few things that prove an enthusiast’s love towards a company more than a dedicated short film. This was highlighted recently when YouTube’s SoKrispyMedia posted a 10-minute action movie starring Optimus, Tesla’s humanoid robot, as well as several of the company’s most iconic products.
The video:
- Shot like a Hollywood action flick, the video featured a rather humorous plot involving a group of thieves that mistakenly targeted a Tesla Model 3 driver.
- The Model 3 driver then ended up speaking to Tesla for assistance, and some high-octane and high-speed hijinks ensued.
- While the short film featured several Tesla products like the Model 3, Superchargers, and the Cybertruck, it is Optimus that truly stole the show.
- Optimus served several roles in the short film, from an assistant in a Tesla office to a “robocop” enforcer that helped out the Model 3 driver.
Future Robo-cop @Tesla_Optimus
— SOKRISPYMEDIA (@sokrispymedia) January 12, 2025
full video: https://t.co/TXpSRhcP5K pic.twitter.com/YFHZ7siAP7
Cool inside jokes:
- The best Tesla videos are those that show an in-depth knowledge of the company, and SoKrispyMedia definitely had it.
- From the opening scenes alone, the video immediately poked fun at TSLA traders, the large number of gray Tesla owners, and the fact that many still do not understand Superchargers.
- The video even poked fun at Tesla’s software updates, as well as how some Tesla drivers use Autopilot or other features without reading the fine print in the company’s release notes.
- The video ended with a tour de force of references to Elon Musk products, from the Tesla Cybertruck to the Boring Company Not-a-Flamethrower, which was released back in 2018.
Check out SoKrispyMedia’s Tesla action short film in the video below.
Don’t hesitate to contact us with news tips. Just send a message to simon@teslarati.com to give us a heads up.
Tesla definitely seems to be determined to release the coolest lineup of accessories for its coolest vehicle. As could be seen in an update to the Tesla Shop, the electric vehicle maker has now launched a metal key card for the Cybertruck—because why not?
Cybertruck keys:
- The Cybertruck, similar to Tesla’s other vehicles, is shipped with a regular key card.
- The vehicle could also be accessed and locked through a phone key.
- As per the Cybertruck’s Owner’s Manual, the all-electric pickup truck is capable of supporting a total of 19 keys.
The Cybertruck’s Metal Key Card:
- Tesla’s Cybertruck Metal Key Card functions much like the vehicle’s regular key card, but it is finished using premium stainless steel
- As per Tesla’s description of the item:
- “Convenient, durable, versatile. The Cybertruck Metal Key Card is a premium stainless-steel alternative to our traditional plastic key cards, making it easy to access your Cybertruck without your Phone Key. Ideal for when your phone is unavailable or when sharing your vehicle with a friend or valet.”
- The Cybertruck Metal Key Card costs $60.
- In comparison, the Cybertruck’s regular key card is sold for $40.
- The Cybertruck Metal Key Card comes with the metal key card itself, as well as a bifold key card wallet.
Tesla Cybertruck merch push:
- Being the company’s most eye-catching vehicle, it is no surprise that that Tesla has been releasing quite a lot of merchandise inspired by the all-electric pickup truck.
- These include a $250 levitating Cybertruck model, as well as a $35 Cybertruck wind-up racer, both of which are out of stock.
- Tesla also sells the $35 “CyberMug,” a $40 “CyberStein,” and a $50 “CyberVessel.”
- Other Cybertruck-inspired merchandise are the $60 Cyberwhistle Stealth, and the $50 CyberOpener.
Don’t hesitate to contact us with news tips. Just send a message to simon@teslarati.com to give us a heads up.
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