Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) Q3 2023 earnings call comes on the heels of the company’s Q3 2023 Update Letter. Tesla remained profitable in Q3, despite a decrease in delivery and production, as well as a reduction in the company’s average selling price. Still, Tesla posted revenues of $23.35 billion and a 7.6% operating margin in Q3 2023.
Tesla did provide some key information in its Q3 2023 Update Letter. For one, the Cybertruck’s first delivery event has been announced for November 30, 2023, and the cumulative miles of Tesla’s FSD Beta program also rose to 525 million. Tesla Energy turned out to be the dark horse for the quarter with its record energy storage deployments of 4.0 GWh.
The following are live updates from Tesla’s Q3 2023 earnings call. I will be updating this article in real time, so please keep refreshing the page to view the latest updates on this story. The first entry starts at the bottom of the page.
17:30 CDT – And that wraps up Tesla’s Q3 2023 earnings call! This call is quite heavy on information, and Elon Musk was surprisingly cautious. Considering the circumstances across the globe, however, this is understandable. Hopefully, Tesla does survive the storms that are coming.
Thanks so much for staying with us for yet another earnings call live blog. We hope to see you again in the next one!
17:30 CDT – Wells Fargo asks for clarification about Elon Musk’s previous comment about Tesla not going full tilt on Giga Mexico unless the economy is strong and if Tesla’s growth can be achieved without the plant. Musk notes that Tesla will be making a factory in Mexico. It’s just going to be a matter of timing. Tesla is still working on Mexico, but the company is paying close attention to interest rates.
Plus, Giga Texas, despite its scope today, is still just a tiny fraction of the land that Tesla owns. So technically, if push comes to shove, Tesla can just focus on Giga Texas and grow the complex even more. “Tesla is a very capable ship, but even a great ship in a storm has challenges,” Musk said, adding that if interest rates come down, then Tesla should accelerate.
“And I apologize if I’m perhaps more paranoid than I should be. Because that might also be the case because I am. I have PTSD from 2008 — 2017 through 2019 are not perfect either. That was very tough going. So you know, the auto industry is also sort of cyclic. It’s because people tend to hesitate to buy a new car and if there’s uncertainty in the economy,” Musk said.
17:23 CDT – Cannacord asks a question about Tesla’s cost per vehicle coming down in the next quarters. Is this more on scale, cost reductions like giga casting, or other things? The analyst also asks if radar was included in some Model Y in China.
Elon Musk noted that Tesla has not included radar in Model 3 and Model Y cars from Giga Shanghai. Tesla is experimenting with this in the Model S and Model X, but there are no plans to do this for the Model 3 and Model Y just yet.
Musk did note that Tesla is looking into the usability of radar in terms of accident prevention. He stated that cars that had radar before had a radar unit that actually generated more noise than signal. The CEO shared some comments about a Tesla-designed radar.
“A Tesla-designed radar is a high-resolution radar that has some potential to be useful,” Musk said.
17:15 CDT – Elon Musk briefly discussed the “Marie Antoinette vibes” in car pricing. To highlight this, Musk discussed his disdain for a work-from-home system, which he noted was unfair to those who have to be in their workplace for their jobs.
17:14 CDT – A follow-up question about price elasticity was asked. Elon Musk highlighted that regular consumers are concerned with payments. He also reiterated the importance of Tesla’s focus on reducing monthly payments.
“I think there’s very significant price elasticity. To be totally frank, if our car is the same cost as a Toyota RAV4, nobody would buy a RAV4. Or at least they’d be very unlikely to. A lot of these EV incentives are actually very difficult for the average person to access; They can’t front $7,500 for even 6 months,” Musk said.
17:10 CDT – Wolfe Research asks if there is a way to convey the speed of improvement in Tesla’s business. He also asks for any update on the timing of Tesla’s next-generation vehicle. The Tesla team noted that this is an evolving thing, and the company is continuously looking to improve.
As for the timing of the next-generation product, Elon Musk noted that Tesla will not be providing this information at this time.
17:06 CDT – Pierre Farragu asks a question about FSD pricing and if Tesla could evolve the system’s pricing as it improves. Elon Musk noted that the economics of a fully autonomous vehicle are pretty astounding. “The economics of the system are just insanely positive,” Musk said. “We’re a hardware company with software margins.”
17:02 CDT – Analyst questions begin! Truist starts with an inquiry about the Cybertruck and its ramp to significant volume. The analyst asks if a similar ramp should be expected for the next-generation platform.
Elon Musk noted that Cybertruck’s production will ramp in 18 months. So, while the Cybertruck’s ramp will cover three calendar years, it’s really just 1.5 years. The team also noted that the Cybertruck has unique complexities affecting the production ramp.
“We dug our own grave with Cybertruck,” Musk joked, to some laughter from the team. “The Cybertruck has a lot of bells and whistles.”
Musk noted that Tesla’s next-generation platform is quite more conventional in that sense. There are simply not as many new things with the next-gen vehicle. Tesla is doing everything possible to simplify the next-generation vehicle to achieve levels per minute in terms of production. Musk also noted that the next-gen Tesla is “utilitarian but cool and beautiful.”
16:56 CDT – A question about Optimus was asked, and if some of the robots can be deployed next year. Musk noted that at this point, Tesla is not yet ready to discuss updates with the Optimus program. But Optimus is improving, and it’s improving fast.
A final investor question was asked about FSD’s international rollout. Musk noted that regulations in different countries dictate the availability of FSD outside the United States. He also admits that he has been overly optimistic about Tesla’s FSD progress.
16:54 CDT – A question about FSD’s price drop was asked. Musk notes that Tesla simply wants to make the system more affordable. The current price is a temporary low, Musk stated. “Well, we just wanted to make it more affordable,” he noted.
A follow-up question was asked about when Tesla will accept legal liability for FSD. Musk joked that everyone already assumes Tesla has legal liabilities. The team also highlighted that L3 systems like the Mercedes-Benz Drive Pilot are very limited, while Tesla’s FSD system is holistic. “It’s baby AGI,” Musk said.
16:52 CDT – A question about Tesla’s growth rate was asked. Elon Musk notes that Tesla is already one of the fastest-growing automakers today. As for the Robotaxi, Musk noted that the vehicle will definitely be non-driven. He highlighted that he is indeed very excited about autonomy, which is pretty amazing in its own right. This is especially notable since Tesla’s work on autonomy will pave the way for Optimus.
16:47 CDT – An inquiry about Giga Shanghai, Berlin, and Mexico was asked. Tesla notes that for Mexico, Tesla is working with factory design. Tesla is working on new production line for next-generation vehicle at Giga Mexico. Elon Musk states Tesla is laying the ground work for construction at Giga Mexico. “We just want to get a sense of the global economy” before Tesla goes all-in.
Elon notes that Tesla is advertising. He acknowledges that advertising is useful, but if people can’t afford Tesla’s cars, advertising won’t do much good. Musk emphasizes his concerns over interest rates and the importance of Tesla’s focus on reducing monthly payments.
16:44 CDT – A second investor question asked about an update on the company’s 4680 cell initiative. Tesla notes that scrap is down 40%, and production is ramping. Giga Texas is now Tesla’s main 4680 facility.
16:43 CDT – Investor questions begin. First up is the company’s expectations for Cybertruck in 2024. Elon Musk notes that it’s difficult to predict this since the Cybertruck is simply so different. It would be a different thing if the Cybertruck were just a copy of another pickup truck, of course. “The more uncharted the territory, the more unpredictable the outcome,” Musk said.
Musk did state that Tesla would eventually hit about 250,000 Cybertrucks per year. This will probably be achieved sometime in 2025.
16:41 CDT – Tesla’s new CFO, Vaibhav Taneja, discusses the company’s finances. He mentions “despite some factory shutdowns, our cost per vehicle decreased to approximately 37,500.” He also discusses that Tesla is focused on reducing costs and investing in the future as the company navigates the years ahead.
16:38 CDT – Musk also reaffirmed Tesla’s 2023 guidance of 1.8 million vehicles.
16:37 CDT – Elon highlights that while the Cybertruck is being released this quarter, expectations must be set with regard to the vehicle’s production ramp.
“There will be enormous challenges in reaching volumes production and cash flow positive. This is our best product ever, but it’d going to require immense work to get cash flow positive at a price that people can afford.
“I just want to temper expectations for the Cybertruck. It’s a great product, but financially, it will take a year to 18 months before it is a significant cash flow contributor,” Musk said.
16:36 CDT – Elon notes that Tesla Energy and Service now contribute over half a billion dollars in quarter profit. It’s becoming one of the company’s most profitable businesses, and it’s growing fast.
16:32 CDT – Oh boy, that was a technical issue. Elon Musk is already speaking. He’s discussing Tesla’s progress with autonomy. He notes that he’s seeing significant promise with FSD Beta V12, which is an end-to-end solution. “We will continue to invest heavily in AI development,” Musk said.
16:30 CDT – It’s time! The Q3 2023 earnings call should be starting any minute now. The music’s stopped, so we’re just waiting for the actual call to begin.
16:29 CDT – And here’s the music! I wonder if Tesla will start on Elon time?
16:15 CDT – Hello, everyone, and welcome to our live blog of Tesla’s third-quarter earnings call! As expected, Tesla’s revenue and EPS took a hit in Q3, thanks in no small part to the company’s decrease in vehicle deliveries. Tesla was still profitable, though, so that pretty much proves that an EV business could consistently make money.
Don’t hesitate to contact us with news tips. Just send a message to simon@teslarati.com to give us a heads up.
Investor's Corner
Tesla is ‘better-positioned’ as a company and as a stock as tariff situation escalates
Tesla is “better-positioned” as a company and as a stock as the tariff situation between the United States, Mexico, and Canada continues to escalate as President Donald Trump announced sanctions against those countries.
Analysts at Piper Sandler are unconcerned regarding Tesla’s position as a high-level stock holding as the tariff drama continues to unfold. This is mostly due to its reputation as a vehicle manufacturer in the domestic market, especially as it holds a distinct advantage of having some of the most American-made vehicles in the country.
Analysts at the firm, led by Alexander Potter, said Tesla is “one of the most defensive stocks” in the automotive sector as the tariff situation continues.
The defensive play comes from the nature of the stock, which should not be too impacted from a U.S. standpoint because of its focus on building vehicles and sourcing parts from manufacturers and companies based in the United States. Tesla has held the distinct title of having several of the most American-made cars, based on annual studies from Cars.com.
Its most recent study, released in June 2024, showed that the Model Y, Model S, and Model X are three of the top ten vehicles with the most U.S.-based manufacturing.
Tesla captures three spots in Cars.com’s American-Made Index, only U.S. manufacturer in list
The year prior, Tesla swept the top four spots of the study.
Piper Sandler analysts highlighted this point in a new note on Monday morning amidst increasing tension between the U.S. and Canada, as Mexico has already started to work with the Trump Administration on a solution:
“Tesla assembles five vehicles in the U.S., and all five rank among the most American-made cars.”
However, with that being said, there is certainly the potential for things to get tougher. The analysts believe that Tesla, while potentially impacted, will be in a better position than most companies because of their domestic position:
“If nothing changes in the next few days, tariffs will almost certainly deal a crippling blow to automotive supply chains in North America. [There is a possibility that] Trump capitulates in some way (perhaps he’ll delay implementation, in an effort to save face).”
There is no evidence that Tesla will be completely bulletproof when it comes to these potential impacts. However, it is definitely better insulated than other companies.
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Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) received a price target boost from analysts at Truist Securities, but it came with some criticisms based on a lack of information on several things that investors were excited to hear about regarding future vehicles and AI achievements.
Last night, Tesla reported its earnings from the fourth quarter of 2024, and while it had a very tempered financial showing, missing most of the Wall Street targets that were set for it, the stock was up after hours and on Thursday due to the details the company released regarding its plans for 2025.
CEO Elon Musk stunned listeners last night by revealing plans to launch unsupervised Full Self-Driving as a service in Austin in June 2025. It will be the first time Tesla will offer driverless FSD rides in public, something it has been working with the City of Austin on since December.
Tesla to launch unsupervised Full Self-Driving as a service in Austin in June
It also reiterated plans for affordable models to be launched this year, potentially catalyzing annual growth in deliveries, something it said it expects to resume in 2025.
Tesla was flat on deliveries in 2024 compared to 2023.
The positives during the call were enough for Truist Securities analyst William Stein to raise the company’s price target to $373 from $351. However, Stein’s note to investors showed there was something to be desired despite all the good that was revealed during the call:
Stein said there was “not enough ground-truth” during the call and too much of a focus on “cheerleading” the company’s potential releases this year:
“Too much cheerleading; not enough ground-truth. In Q4, TSLA’s ASP weakness drive revenue, GPM, OPM, & EPS below consensus.”
As previously mentioned, Tesla did report weak financials that missed consensus estimates. What saved the call and perhaps the stock from plummeting on these missed metrics was the other details that Musk revealed, especially the FSD launch in Austin in June.
There were also plenty of things related to the affordable models and other vehicles, like the fact that Tesla plans to include things like Steer by Wire, Adaptive Air Suspension, and Rear Wheel Steering, that helped offset negatives.
Stein saw this as a distraction from what should have been reported:
“While CEO Elon Musk played the role of cheerleader, calling for TSLA’s path to massive market cap by leading in autonomy, management was remarkably short on two critical details: (1) info about new vehicles in 2025 and (2) milestones for AI acheivements, especially FSD. We continue to ask ourselves ‘where’s the beef?’ CY26 EPS to $3.99 (from $4.87). DCF-derived PT to $373 (from $351).”
Tesla did detail some AI milestones, like its record-breaking miles per accident on Autopilot, which was a Q4-best of 5.94 million miles. The Shareholder Deck also outlined major upgrades to AI:
“In Q4, we completed the deployment of Cortex, a ~50k H100 training cluster at Gigafactory Texas. Cortex helped enable V13 of FSD (Supervised)1, which boasts major improvements in safety and comfort thanks to 4.2x increase in data, higher resolution video inputs, 2x reduction in photon-to-control latency and redesigned controller, among other enhancements.”
Tesla shares are up 2.11 percent on Thursday as of 12:05 p.m. on the East Coast.
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Tesla has released its Q4 2024 vehicle safety report. Similar to data from previous quarters, vehicles that were operating with Autopilot technology proved notably safer.
The Q4 2024 report:
- As per Tesla, it recorded one crash for every 5.94 million miles driven in which drivers were using Autopilot technology.
- The company also recorded one crash for every 1.08 million miles driven for drivers who were not using Autopilot technology.
- For comparison, the most recent data available from the NHTSA and FHWA (from 2023) showed that there was one automobile crash every 702,000 miles in the United States.
Previous safety reports:
- In Q3 2024, Tesla recorded one crash for every 7.08 million miles driven in which drivers were using Autopilot technology and one crash for every 1.29 million miles driven by drivers not using Autopilot technology.
- In Q2 2024, Tesla recorded one crash for every 6.88 million miles driven in which drivers were using Autopilot technology, and one crash for every 1.45 million miles driven for drivers not using Autopilot technology.
- In Q1 2024, Tesla recorded one crash for every 7.63 million miles driven in which drivers were using Autopilot technology, and one crash for every 955,000 million miles driven for drivers not using Autopilot technology.
Year-over-Year Comparison:
- In Q4 2023, Tesla recorded one crash for every 5.39 million miles driven in which drivers were using Autopilot technology and one crash for every 1.00 million miles driven for drivers not using Autopilot technology.
Key background:
- Tesla began voluntarily releasing quarterly safety reports in October 2018 to provide critical safety information about our vehicles to the public.
- On July 2019, Tesla started voluntarily releasing annual updated data about vehicle fires as well.
- It should be noted that accident rates among all vehicles on the road can vary from quarter to quarter and can be affected by seasonality, such as reduced daylight and inclement weather conditions.
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