Investor's Corner
Tesla files to build EV batteries on new production lines at Fremont Factory
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) has filed to build a new battery manufacturing equipment line at the Fremont Factory in Northern California. The factory, which Tesla purchased in 2010, is the only in the company’s lineup to produce all four models. It has not been known as a battery cell or pack manufacturing plant, as the company’s Gigafactory in Sparks, Nevada, produces those EV components. However, the filings indicate Tesla may be looking to slightly expand its cell manufacturing efforts with new production lines at Fremont.
Filed and signed by Tesla on August 30, the permit is labeled as “Tesla F21-0391-A – CTA Battery B-Build.” Tesla gives the following description of the project:
“NEW BATTERY MANUFACTURING EQUIPMENT LINE ON 2ND FLOOR OF MAIN ASSEMBLY BUILDING. THIS PERMIT APPLICATION RELATES TO THE MODULE PORTION OF THE LINE.”
The project is valued at $1.5 million, according to documents seen by Teslarati.
Credit: City of Fremont
Additionally, another application reveals a $1.3 million project that includes the installation of a new maintenance office, a storage area, production cells with equipment for hood, fender, and trunk lids, and offline cell manufacturing equipment. This project is listed to be on the first floor of the assembly building.
Interestingly, the Fremont Factory has been one of Tesla’s more spacially-confined facilities. Earlier this year, during a visit from Morgan Stanley analysts, including Adam Jonas, the firm noted the Fremont Factory was incredibly tight in terms of storage capacity and room in general. Despite running at a capacity of 20 percent above what has been considered its maximum. “The plant was never designed to produce 450k units (at its peak produced ~300k units before Tesla took it over from Toyota), which was immediately apparent at the tour, ” Jonas wrote in his note describing the visit. “Tesla does not shy away from the fact the plant is inefficiently designed with four assembly buildings, one of which is a tent that cars are assembled in,” referring to GA 4.5, which was made permanent last year.
Just two weeks prior to Morgan Stanley’s visit to Fremont, CEO Elon Musk stated Tesla was considering expanding Fremont “significantly.” While many of us just thought this likely meant an expansion of vehicle production alone, Musk may have been hinting toward an expansion of the manufacturing process altogether.
Tesla battery manufacturing efforts
Tesla has held battery supply deals with Panasonic, CATL, and LG Chem, but has also started building its own cells in-house. In 2020, Tesla unveiled its 4680 battery cell, which has already been prototype-tested by Panasonic. Tesla has been building the cell at the Kato Rd. facility just a few blocks away from Fremont’s front doors. However, the automaker has not scaled this cell to mass production as of yet, and Tesla could always use more battery cells.
With the 4680 cell not quite reaching mass production volumes yet, an order log that grows with what seems to be every minute, and a production volume that just simply has not caught up to Tesla’s demand, it would make sense to expand in-house battery manufacturing efforts as supplementary support.
“I think we’ve said this now for many years. I know has proven true. Tesla does not have a demand problem, we have a production problem. And we’ve almost always had it’s a very rare exception it’s always been a production problem,” Musk said after Q2. “I think that will remain the case.”
Rearranging at the Fremont Factory
Over the past month or so, Tesla has filed to make many significant changes at the Fremont Factory. After we reported on the construction efforts that are seemingly underway, Tesla has also been filing several applications with the City of Fremont for equipment repositioning, as well as the construction of new foundations and manufacturing equipment. Even things as simple as light poles are being repositioned to make way for potential new manufacturing buildings.
Tesla Fremont plant is abuzz with activity as nearby construction goes underway
Tesla has also started relocating Model S and X production equipment to other portions of the factory. “GASX,” which we can assume is “General Assembly Model S and X,” has had a hoist relocated, according to filings. Tesla has also filed to install production tools and other associated Model S and Model X manufacturing utilities in the factory. This does not necessarily imply that production lines for the two vehicles will be expanding, especially considering the vehicles make up an extremely small portion of Tesla’s overall sales. However, these manufacturing lines may be shifting to other locations at Fremont to make way for the perhaps imminent installation of cell manufacturing lines at Fremont.
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Investor's Corner
Tesla is ‘better-positioned’ as a company and as a stock as tariff situation escalates
Tesla is “better-positioned” as a company and as a stock as the tariff situation between the United States, Mexico, and Canada continues to escalate as President Donald Trump announced sanctions against those countries.
Analysts at Piper Sandler are unconcerned regarding Tesla’s position as a high-level stock holding as the tariff drama continues to unfold. This is mostly due to its reputation as a vehicle manufacturer in the domestic market, especially as it holds a distinct advantage of having some of the most American-made vehicles in the country.
Analysts at the firm, led by Alexander Potter, said Tesla is “one of the most defensive stocks” in the automotive sector as the tariff situation continues.
The defensive play comes from the nature of the stock, which should not be too impacted from a U.S. standpoint because of its focus on building vehicles and sourcing parts from manufacturers and companies based in the United States. Tesla has held the distinct title of having several of the most American-made cars, based on annual studies from Cars.com.
Its most recent study, released in June 2024, showed that the Model Y, Model S, and Model X are three of the top ten vehicles with the most U.S.-based manufacturing.
Tesla captures three spots in Cars.com’s American-Made Index, only U.S. manufacturer in list
The year prior, Tesla swept the top four spots of the study.
Piper Sandler analysts highlighted this point in a new note on Monday morning amidst increasing tension between the U.S. and Canada, as Mexico has already started to work with the Trump Administration on a solution:
“Tesla assembles five vehicles in the U.S., and all five rank among the most American-made cars.”
However, with that being said, there is certainly the potential for things to get tougher. The analysts believe that Tesla, while potentially impacted, will be in a better position than most companies because of their domestic position:
“If nothing changes in the next few days, tariffs will almost certainly deal a crippling blow to automotive supply chains in North America. [There is a possibility that] Trump capitulates in some way (perhaps he’ll delay implementation, in an effort to save face).”
There is no evidence that Tesla will be completely bulletproof when it comes to these potential impacts. However, it is definitely better insulated than other companies.
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Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) received a price target boost from analysts at Truist Securities, but it came with some criticisms based on a lack of information on several things that investors were excited to hear about regarding future vehicles and AI achievements.
Last night, Tesla reported its earnings from the fourth quarter of 2024, and while it had a very tempered financial showing, missing most of the Wall Street targets that were set for it, the stock was up after hours and on Thursday due to the details the company released regarding its plans for 2025.
CEO Elon Musk stunned listeners last night by revealing plans to launch unsupervised Full Self-Driving as a service in Austin in June 2025. It will be the first time Tesla will offer driverless FSD rides in public, something it has been working with the City of Austin on since December.
Tesla to launch unsupervised Full Self-Driving as a service in Austin in June
It also reiterated plans for affordable models to be launched this year, potentially catalyzing annual growth in deliveries, something it said it expects to resume in 2025.
Tesla was flat on deliveries in 2024 compared to 2023.
The positives during the call were enough for Truist Securities analyst William Stein to raise the company’s price target to $373 from $351. However, Stein’s note to investors showed there was something to be desired despite all the good that was revealed during the call:
Stein said there was “not enough ground-truth” during the call and too much of a focus on “cheerleading” the company’s potential releases this year:
“Too much cheerleading; not enough ground-truth. In Q4, TSLA’s ASP weakness drive revenue, GPM, OPM, & EPS below consensus.”
As previously mentioned, Tesla did report weak financials that missed consensus estimates. What saved the call and perhaps the stock from plummeting on these missed metrics was the other details that Musk revealed, especially the FSD launch in Austin in June.
There were also plenty of things related to the affordable models and other vehicles, like the fact that Tesla plans to include things like Steer by Wire, Adaptive Air Suspension, and Rear Wheel Steering, that helped offset negatives.
Stein saw this as a distraction from what should have been reported:
“While CEO Elon Musk played the role of cheerleader, calling for TSLA’s path to massive market cap by leading in autonomy, management was remarkably short on two critical details: (1) info about new vehicles in 2025 and (2) milestones for AI acheivements, especially FSD. We continue to ask ourselves ‘where’s the beef?’ CY26 EPS to $3.99 (from $4.87). DCF-derived PT to $373 (from $351).”
Tesla did detail some AI milestones, like its record-breaking miles per accident on Autopilot, which was a Q4-best of 5.94 million miles. The Shareholder Deck also outlined major upgrades to AI:
“In Q4, we completed the deployment of Cortex, a ~50k H100 training cluster at Gigafactory Texas. Cortex helped enable V13 of FSD (Supervised)1, which boasts major improvements in safety and comfort thanks to 4.2x increase in data, higher resolution video inputs, 2x reduction in photon-to-control latency and redesigned controller, among other enhancements.”
Tesla shares are up 2.11 percent on Thursday as of 12:05 p.m. on the East Coast.
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Tesla has released its Q4 2024 vehicle safety report. Similar to data from previous quarters, vehicles that were operating with Autopilot technology proved notably safer.
The Q4 2024 report:
- As per Tesla, it recorded one crash for every 5.94 million miles driven in which drivers were using Autopilot technology.
- The company also recorded one crash for every 1.08 million miles driven for drivers who were not using Autopilot technology.
- For comparison, the most recent data available from the NHTSA and FHWA (from 2023) showed that there was one automobile crash every 702,000 miles in the United States.
Previous safety reports:
- In Q3 2024, Tesla recorded one crash for every 7.08 million miles driven in which drivers were using Autopilot technology and one crash for every 1.29 million miles driven by drivers not using Autopilot technology.
- In Q2 2024, Tesla recorded one crash for every 6.88 million miles driven in which drivers were using Autopilot technology, and one crash for every 1.45 million miles driven for drivers not using Autopilot technology.
- In Q1 2024, Tesla recorded one crash for every 7.63 million miles driven in which drivers were using Autopilot technology, and one crash for every 955,000 million miles driven for drivers not using Autopilot technology.
Year-over-Year Comparison:
- In Q4 2023, Tesla recorded one crash for every 5.39 million miles driven in which drivers were using Autopilot technology and one crash for every 1.00 million miles driven for drivers not using Autopilot technology.
Key background:
- Tesla began voluntarily releasing quarterly safety reports in October 2018 to provide critical safety information about our vehicles to the public.
- On July 2019, Tesla started voluntarily releasing annual updated data about vehicle fires as well.
- It should be noted that accident rates among all vehicles on the road can vary from quarter to quarter and can be affected by seasonality, such as reduced daylight and inclement weather conditions.
Don’t hesitate to contact us with news tips. Just send a message to simon@teslarati.com to give us a heads up.
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